警告！泡沫即将破灭，Palantir走出了双顶

Core Viewpoint - Palantir has reported impressive quarterly earnings but has not seen a corresponding increase in stock price, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts despite its recent rise in market capitalization to become one of the top ten most valuable tech companies globally [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Palantir's revenue surged to $884 million, exceeding expectations, with U.S. commercial revenue growing by 71% year-over-year [3]. - The company's market capitalization is currently over $280 billion, placing it just above Salesforce [3]. - The "40 Rule" score for Palantir has increased to 83%, reflecting significant revenue growth of 55% year-over-year in the U.S. [9]. Valuation Concerns - Palantir's price-to-earnings ratio has risen to over 71 times expected revenue, highlighting a significant valuation discrepancy compared to peers like Snowflake and CrowdStrike [5]. - The stock's recent performance has formed a double top pattern, suggesting a potential bearish reversal and indicating that investors may need to see substantial price increases to achieve positive returns [7][13]. - The expected market cap for Palantir in 2027, based on projected revenue, could be around $86 billion, translating to a stock price of approximately $31, which is lower than current valuations [12]. Stock Dilution Issues - The diluted share count has increased from 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion shares, contributing to the high valuation and posing challenges for shareholders who have already paid a premium [7]. - The significant stock-based compensation (SBC) is a concern, as it can distort financial metrics and affect the perceived financial health of the company [9]. Market Position - Palantir's valuation appears inflated compared to its growth rate, which has led to its recent ranking among the top ten tech companies [13]. - The company is facing a high downside risk of 50% to 70%, similar to the situation experienced by Snowflake in the past [13].