中美联合声明后，市场迎来反弹还是反转？对哪些商品品种最为利好？

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the U.S. indicates a significant easing of trade tensions, with both countries agreeing to modify tariffs on each other's goods, which may lead to a gradual recovery of trade flows and improved economic conditions [1]. Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The U.S. will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the first 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff thereafter, and will eliminate additional tariffs imposed in early April [1]. - China will similarly suspend a 24% tariff on U.S. goods for 90 days, keeping a 10% tariff, and will cancel other tariffs imposed in early April [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The easing of trade tensions is expected to positively impact sensitive sectors, with shipping and oil markets likely to see increased demand and price stabilization [2][7]. - The potential for a recovery in U.S. orders and changes in transshipment trade are critical indicators for future trade negotiations and market dynamics [3]. Group 3: Commodity-Specific Impacts - The shipping market is anticipated to experience a surge in demand due to the tariff suspensions, particularly in the U.S. shipping lanes, which may lead to a temporary reversal in shipping volumes [7]. - The oil market remains cautious, as the tariff adjustments do not directly affect crude oil trade flows, but the overall sentiment may improve due to reduced trade tensions [9]. - Cotton exports from China to the U.S. may recover if negotiations continue positively, enhancing China's competitive position in the textile market [11]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Key indicators to monitor include China's PMI new export orders and U.S. retail inventory levels, which will provide insights into the stability of trade conditions [4]. - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with potential risks from U.S. fiscal policies and global inventory cycles impacting market sentiment [5].