Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Bull and Bear Signal Board" by the company, which helps in assessing the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The signal board is updated regularly to provide timely insights into gold price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Overview - Gold prices are primarily referenced from London Gold for overseas markets and Shanghai Gold for domestic markets, with the latter being the standard for local pricing [6]. - As of May 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 star, indicating a low valuation, while it reached over 4 stars during its cheapest point in 2022 [9]. - The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with significant undervaluation opportunities, particularly in 2015-2016 [10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. US Dollar: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to higher gold prices [14][19]. 2. Mining Costs: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has increased due to inflation and rising labor costs. Prices below this threshold indicate a potential buying opportunity [20]. 3. Geopolitical Risks: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases [20]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Returns - Gold exhibits a volatility rate of approximately 29% and a maximum drawdown of around 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation [23]. - Since 2012, the annualized return for Shanghai Gold has been about 6.49%, outperforming the pure bond index at 4.52% and closely matching the total return index of 6.54% [27]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold for investment: 1. Gold Funds: Typically yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves [31]. 2. Physical Gold: Includes gold bars, panda coins, and jewelry, with varying levels of premium and risk of counterfeit [35][39][40]. - The recommended allocation for gold in a household's asset portfolio is between 5% to 10% [29].
螺丝钉黄金星级和牛熊信号板来啦：黄金估值如何？｜2025年5月
银行螺丝钉·2025-05-12 13:53