【广发宏观郭磊】如何看中美经贸会谈进展

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods since April 8 and suspending 24% of tariffs for 90 days, while China reciprocated with similar actions. This indicates a stabilizing economic relationship and highlights the resilience of Chinese manufacturing in the global supply chain [1][5][9]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Implications - The trade agreement is expected to lower constraints on Chinese exports to the US, reducing the risk of export decline and potentially increasing export elasticity in the short term [9]. - The agreement is likely to mitigate the risks of recession in the US and global economies caused by tariffs, thus stabilizing external demand and financial environments [9][10]. Group 2: Manufacturing Competitiveness - Chinese manufacturing has strengthened its global position, with a significant increase in both scale and efficiency since 2018. In 2021, China's manufacturing value added accounted for approximately 31% of the global total, far surpassing the US at 16% and Japan at 6% [7][8]. - The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows that China has improved its ranking from 35th in 1990 to 2nd in 2021, indicating a robust competitive edge in manufacturing [8]. Group 3: Economic Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policy aimed at expanding domestic demand remains unchanged despite tariff impacts. The focus is on optimizing the supply-demand relationship and enhancing consumption contributions to economic growth [12]. - The recent trade talks and resilient export data may provide a more extended window for policy adjustments, allowing for potential fine-tuning based on economic conditions [12]. Group 4: Asset Pricing and Market Impact - The progress in trade talks is expected to lead to upward revisions in nominal growth expectations, a decline in liquidity expectations, and an increase in risk appetite, which may drive interest rates higher [13]. - Equity assets are likely to benefit from improved fundamental expectations and the elimination of extreme scenarios, particularly in sectors sensitive to external demand and overall economic volume [13].