中金：中美关税“降级”的资产含义

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 145% to 30%, which exceeded market expectations and positively impacted market sentiment [1][2][7]. Tariff Reduction Details - The US reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, including a 90-day exemption on 24% of the tariffs [2][6]. - China reciprocated by canceling 91% of its retaliatory tariffs against the US [2][3]. Market Impact - Following the announcement, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by over 3% and 5% respectively, while US stock futures surged by 3-4% [1]. - The Brent crude oil price increased by 3.6% to $66 per barrel, and gold prices fell by 3% to around $3200 per ounce due to reduced risk aversion [1]. Economic Implications - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate supply shocks in the US and demand shocks in China, potentially easing inflationary pressures in the US [7][12]. - The effective tax rate in the US is projected to decrease from 17-20% to 16-17% as a result of the tariff changes [10][25]. Future Negotiations - The success of future negotiations remains critical, as the current 30% tariff level still imposes additional costs on businesses and may suppress demand [8][18]. - The second quarter is deemed crucial for observing progress in tariff negotiations, tax reductions, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][20]. Asset Market Reactions - US and Hong Kong stock markets have recovered to pre-tariff levels, with the S&P 500 index currently valued at 20.6 times earnings, up from 19.4 times in early April [21][28]. - The Hang Seng Index has rebounded significantly, reflecting improved market sentiment, but future performance will depend on the outcomes of ongoing trade discussions [28][29]. Inflation and Growth Projections - The tariffs are estimated to raise US inflation by 1.4-1.5 percentage points, with potential GDP growth impacts of 0.8 percentage points due to increased tariff revenues [12][19]. - If tariffs are further reduced, the Federal Reserve may have opportunities to lower interest rates later in the year to support economic growth [17][25].