中金 • 全球研究 | 国别研究系列之阿拉伯联合酋长国篇：中东的全球化红利

Core Viewpoint - The UAE is a pioneer in economic diversification in the Gulf region, leveraging its resource and geographical advantages to benefit from globalization, with continuous economic growth driven by industrial upgrading, internal and external demand linkage, and financial market openness [1]. Group 1: Economic Development Models - The UAE's economic development showcases two models: the Abu Dhabi model, which focuses on manufacturing and industrial upgrading, and the Dubai model, which is a composite of re-export trade, real estate, high-end tourism, and finance, reflecting differentiated and complementary economic transformation paths [1]. - Abu Dhabi's economic transformation began in the 1980s with the establishment of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, utilizing oil revenues for financial investments and developing downstream industries [11]. - Dubai established itself as a trade hub through the development of ports and free trade zones, with the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 aiming to double GDP and annual FDI inflows over the next decade [12]. Group 2: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - The UAE has attracted significant foreign direct investment through its free trade zones and favorable tax policies, with FDI net inflows increasing by 35% to $30.6 billion in 2023, accounting for 47% of the total net inflows in the West Asia region [29]. - The UAE has relaxed foreign investment regulations since 2019, allowing 100% foreign ownership in certain sectors and eliminating the need for local partners in distribution businesses [28]. Group 3: Economic Structure and Growth - As of 2023, the UAE's nominal GDP reached $504.2 billion, with the non-oil sector contributing approximately 75% to the GDP, reflecting a successful transition from an oil-dependent economy [9][14]. - The non-oil sector's GDP grew by 6.2% in 2023, offsetting the negative impact of oil production cuts, with significant contributions from manufacturing, wholesale and retail, and financial services [15][17]. Group 4: Energy Transition - The UAE is a benchmark for energy transition in the Middle East, pursuing a dual-path strategy of "greening fossil fuels" and expanding renewable energy, with a goal of increasing the share of clean energy to 50% by 2050 [37][40]. - The UAE's National Energy Strategy 2050 aims to invest $163 billion to enhance clean energy's share and reduce carbon emissions, with significant investments in renewable energy projects [42]. Group 5: Trade and Logistics - The UAE has established itself as a major re-export trade center, with re-export trade accounting for over 40% of total imports, totaling $167.8 billion in 2023 [21][22]. - The UAE's strategic location and extensive port infrastructure, including Jebel Ali Port, position it as a key player in global trade, with container throughput growing by 5.8% in 2022 [49]. Group 6: Real Estate and Tourism - The UAE's real estate market has seen significant price increases, with Dubai's property prices rising by 46% from 2021 to 2023, driven by foreign investment and tourism recovery [51]. - The UAE's tourism sector is supported by strategic infrastructure investments, with a goal of attracting 40 million visitors by 2031, contributing significantly to GDP [56][57]. Group 7: Financial Market Development - The UAE is evolving into a global financial center, attracting international financial institutions due to its geopolitical neutrality, independent regulatory framework, and favorable tax environment [61].