国泰海通｜策略：五一消费量增价稳，新房销售增速转正——中观景气观察5月第1期

Group 1: Consumer Trends - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel increased significantly, with the number of travelers and spending up by 6.4% and 8.0% year-on-year, respectively, recovering to 161.0% and 153.1% of 2019 levels, although the average spending per traveler was only at 95.1% of 2019 levels, indicating a need for improvement in consumer spending willingness [2][3] - The performance of the entertainment sector, including live performances and movies, showed a decline, with the number of performances down by 2.52% year-on-year and daily box office revenue for films down by 51.0% compared to the previous year [2][3] Group 2: Real Estate Market - New home sales saw a significant year-on-year increase of 13.7% in 30 major cities, with first-tier and second-tier cities experiencing increases of 24.4% and 14.0%, respectively, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 2.7% [3] - The sales growth of new homes turned positive, while the growth rate of second-hand home sales decreased on a month-on-month basis [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Passenger car sales continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 7% driven by ongoing policy support and new car launches, although daily sales were below previous expectations, and dealer inventory pressure increased [3] Group 4: Manufacturing and Construction - The construction demand in the real estate sector remained weak, leading to a decline in the prices of construction materials, with the cement price index dropping by 1.9% week-on-week [4] - Manufacturing activity showed signs of seasonal slowdown as the holiday approached, with a significant increase in job postings, indicating a strong hiring intention despite the overall slowdown in manufacturing operations [4]