国泰海通｜宏观：提振通胀-货币有望更积极 ——2025年4月物价数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the recovery of CPI in April is primarily driven by seasonal factors such as food and travel prices, while uncertainties from trade friction and weak recovery of private sector balance sheets are constraining price elasticity. Consequently, there is room for monetary policy to continue its efforts in price regulation in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - Food price recovery is supported by supply constraints from imports and seasonal factors, with beef prices rising due to drought in South America and a seasonal switch leading to higher fruit and vegetable prices [2]. - Strong travel demand during the Labor Day holiday resulted in a core CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal expectations, while year-on-year growth remained at 0.5% [2]. PPI Analysis - In April, the PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, indicating a persistent mismatch between supply and demand [3]. - The delay in the peak construction season, influenced by fiscal policies prioritizing debt repayment and capital injection into small banks, has affected the PPI recovery pace [3]. - The main drag on PPI comes from upstream raw materials and durable consumer goods, exacerbated by trade friction and weak coal demand following the end of the heating season [3]. Policy Implications - The article emphasizes a heightened focus on price regulation by policymakers, with the central bank's unexpected rate cuts reflecting this priority [3]. - The article notes that the uncertainties from trade friction and the weak recovery of private sector balance sheets are significant constraints on price elasticity, suggesting that there is still potential for monetary policy to exert influence in the coming months [3].