国泰海通｜宏观：出口-三个超预期

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three unexpected aspects of China's export growth in April 2025, indicating resilience in exports despite challenges, with a focus on the strong performance in exports to the U.S., the effectiveness of re-export trade, and the growth in exports to non-U.S. markets [1][5][6]. Summary by Sections Export Growth Performance - In April 2025, China's export growth rate was 8.1% year-on-year in dollar terms, down from 12.4% previously, while imports saw a slight decline of -0.2% compared to -4.3% before [2]. - Month-on-month, exports increased by 0.6% from March, showing strong resilience despite potential over-extraction in March and the impact of tariffs in April [2]. Trade Surplus and Economic Support - The trade surplus in April was stronger than the average for the first quarter of 2025, providing support for the economy [3]. Export Structure Analysis - The export structure showed significant differentiation: exports to the U.S. fell sharply by -21.0%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America rose significantly by 20.8% and 17.3%, respectively [4]. - Despite tariff exemptions for mobile phones and computers, export growth in these categories declined, possibly due to prior over-extraction [4]. Unexpected Aspects of Export Growth - The resilience of exports to the U.S. was unexpected, with a month-on-month decline of only about 19 percentage points from seasonal norms, indicating a high dependency of U.S. importers on Chinese goods [5]. - Re-export trade showed unexpected strength, with a combined export growth rate of 4.7% to the U.S., ASEAN, and Latin America, suggesting that re-export trade effectively offset declines in direct exports to the U.S. [5]. - Exports to regions outside the U.S., ASEAN, and Latin America grew by 10.4%, surpassing previous averages, indicating that Chinese exporters are actively seeking new markets [6]. Future Outlook - Short-term export growth may face challenges due to potential cooling in small package exports and capacity constraints in re-export trade, but April's performance demonstrates strong resilience [6].