国泰海通｜固收：双降之后，资金市场从博弈预期到支撑现实

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in monetary policy, highlighting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts while emphasizing the use of structural tools to support economic growth and liquidity in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank has adopted a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a recent 10 basis point (bp) cut being less than market expectations, indicating a focus on stabilizing growth and guiding long-term bond rates [1]. - The average cost of open market operations (OMO), medium-term lending facility (MLF), and reverse repos has decreased by 52 bp, with the average cost at 1.79% as of April [1]. - The central bank is enhancing the use of structural tools, lowering interest rates on these tools and increasing the quotas for various relending programs to directly support the real economy [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The bond market is expected to remain resilient due to liquidity support, with a shift in focus from speculative rate cuts to the reality of declining funding rates, which may provide a safety net for the bond market [1][2]. - The probability of continuous rate cuts in the short term is low, with expectations for a total reduction of around 30 bp for the entire year of 2025, indicating a more stable approach to monetary policy [2]. - The trend of declining short-term funding and certificate of deposit rates is expected to continue, with the 7-day OMO rate recently lowered to 1.4%, suggesting a downward movement towards 1.6% for the one-year AAA certificate of deposit yields [2].