Core Viewpoint - The high school education sector is expected to benefit from demographic and policy dividends, leading to an increase in degree supply [1] Group 1: Demand and Population Trends - High school education demand is inelastic, with a remaining demographic dividend period of 7-8 years; the population of eligible students is projected to remain stable until around 2032-2033 [2] - In 2023, the number of candidates for the college entrance examination reached 12.91 million, an increase of 8% year-on-year, with the participation rate among eligible students rising to 81% [2] Group 2: Policy Support - The 2025 "Education Strong Nation Construction Plan" aims to accelerate the expansion of ordinary high school education resources and promote the integration of vocational and general education [3] - The revised "Vocational Education Law" in 2022 removed the term "vocational-general separation," indicating a shift towards deeper integration of vocational and general high school education [3] Group 3: Private High School Growth - The proportion of private high schools has been steadily increasing, with the number of private ordinary high schools rising from 17% of total high schools in 2011 to 30% in 2023 [4] - In 2023, there were 15,381 ordinary high schools in China, with 4,567 being private; private high school enrollment reached 5.48 million, accounting for 20% of total high school students [4] - The potential for expansion in high school education is greater in central and western regions, where the vocational-general education ratio is relatively high [4]
国泰海通|社服:职普融合,高中学位供给扩容
国泰海通证券研究·2025-05-09 10:40