国泰海通｜农业：粮价影响、品种分化，看好板块景气度提升——种植板块24年年报及25年一季报总结

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the potential recovery of grain prices in 2025, which is expected to create investment opportunities in the planting sector due to reduced imports of agricultural products and a focus on food security [1][2] - In 2024 and Q1 2025, grain prices such as corn and soybeans are projected to decline initially but then rise, with specific increases noted: corn prices up by 6.4%, soybean meal by 6.5%, wheat by 1.2%, and cottonseed meal by 18.4% in Q1 2025 compared to the beginning of the quarter [1] - The performance of agricultural companies is expected to improve in 2025, driven by rising prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat, with specific mention of Morning Light's recovery due to increased cottonseed meal prices [1] Group 2 - The adjustment of tariffs is anticipated to lead to a decrease in grain imports from the United States, which was valued at $24.9 billion in 2024, thereby enhancing the domestic grain price environment and benefiting the planting industry [2] - The promotion of food self-sufficiency is deemed essential, with advancements in technology such as transgenic and gene editing expected to accelerate, benefiting seed companies with leading technological reserves [2][3] - The performance of seed companies is expected to vary, with strong competitive varieties being a core support for their success [3]