Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical extreme fluctuations in the US stock market over the past fifty years, highlighting three significant events: Black Monday in 1987, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It emphasizes that the future trajectory of the US stock market may depend on the impact of tariff policies on the economy and the pace of industrial transformation led by AI [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Market Fluctuations - The US stock market has experienced three major extreme fluctuations in the past fifty years: Black Monday in 1987, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which are considered the most typical major shocks in this period [1][2]. - Black Monday in 1987 was characterized by a combination of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, pressure from a depreciating dollar, and a bubble burst leading to significant sell-offs, resulting in the largest single-day drop in history [2]. - The 2008 financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, which led to a liquidity crisis, culminating in the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and a simultaneous drop in stocks, bonds, and currencies [2]. - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a global economic slowdown, with significant negative impacts on production, consumption, and employment in the US, leading to multiple market circuit breakers being triggered within ten days [2]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Since April, the tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to significant volatility in the US stock market, raising concerns about a potential "hard landing" for the US economy amid increasing policy uncertainty and trade tensions [3]. - The impact of tariff policies on the US economy has not yet fully materialized, and if previously postponed tariffs are implemented, the economy may face risks of hard landing or stagflation, which could put additional pressure on the stock market [3]. - The ongoing industrial transformation driven by AI is seen as a critical factor that may support corporate earnings in the US stock market as the trend continues to evolve [3].
国泰海通|海外策略:回顾美股历史上三次巨震
国泰海通证券研究·2025-05-05 14:15