创新药不会被政策“杀死”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of former President Trump's healthcare policies, particularly the "Most Favored Nations" (MFN) pricing strategy, which aims to lower U.S. drug prices by aligning them with the lowest prices in other countries. This policy has sparked significant investment from multinational pharmaceutical companies in U.S. manufacturing and R&D capabilities, indicating a major shift in the global pharmaceutical industry landscape [3][4]. Group 1: MFN Pricing Policy - The MFN pricing policy mandates that U.S. Medicare and Medicaid drug prices cannot exceed the lowest prices in other developed countries, directly targeting the high drug prices in the U.S. [6][9] - The policy has faced criticism from various stakeholders, including the pharmaceutical industry, which views it as a potential threat to profitability, especially for innovative drugs still in early commercialization stages [6][7][9]. - Despite the potential benefits of controlling healthcare costs, the policy is seen as a high-pressure tactic that may lead to significant adjustments in global pricing strategies by pharmaceutical companies [7][9]. Group 2: Investment Trends in U.S. Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - Major pharmaceutical companies, including Merck, Roche, Novartis, and Eli Lilly, have announced substantial investments in U.S. manufacturing and R&D, totaling hundreds of billions of dollars, in response to the changing policy landscape [4][12][13]. - These investments are not merely for capacity expansion but are strategic moves to adapt to anticipated policy changes, with companies aiming to enhance supply chain resilience and local production capabilities [12][13][16]. - The shift towards domestic manufacturing is also driven by concerns over the reliance on foreign supply chains, particularly for essential drugs and raw materials [16]. Group 3: Impact on Different Segments of the Pharmaceutical Industry - The healthcare and tariff policies under Trump's administration have created a bifurcation within the pharmaceutical industry, where some companies face cost pressures while others benefit from regulatory changes [18][24]. - Companies heavily reliant on Medicare payments, particularly those producing biosimilars and chronic disease medications, are expected to face significant challenges due to tightening Medicaid budgets and reduced insurance coverage [20][21]. - Conversely, innovative drug companies may benefit from the maintenance of pricing power and expedited FDA approval processes, allowing them to navigate the market more effectively [22][23][24]. Group 4: Overall Industry Dynamics - The article highlights a transformative period for the global pharmaceutical industry, characterized by a shift from a "global manufacturing + free pricing" model to a more localized and regulated approach [24]. - The pressures from new policies necessitate that pharmaceutical companies reassess their operational strategies, focusing on cost control, supply chain security, and adaptability to regulatory changes [24]. - The evolving landscape presents both opportunities and risks, with companies needing to find long-term strategies to thrive amid uncertainty [24].