在此前的文章我们提到，踏空老铺黄金的投资者一部分是看错了25年黄金的走势，另一部分是未认知到黄金是老铺的β。 为什么市场会出现对老铺的认知分化？如何理解老铺和金价的相关性？这是盘桓在每个投资人脑子里的问题，是复杂、看点不一的问题，我们把观点庖 丁解牛，从不同角度去梳理。 0 1 金价越涨，老铺销量越高？ 首先从公司公开数据来看，2023/2024/2025H1营收分别为31.80/85.06/123.54亿元，同比+145.7/+167.5/+251%，毛利率分别为42%/41%/38%。毛利率 下降的原因主要系原材料成本增加。 这其实是老铺和其他黄金珠宝公司不同之处。老铺黄金明确表示，不采用对冲工具（如黄金租赁、期货工具等）来抵消金价波动风险，而是通过月度采 购计划、调整产品"一口价"来动态管理风险。 对于大多数黄金珠宝零售公司而言，他们的商业模式可以概括为——不依赖行情涨跌获利，依靠稳定的工艺附加值(加工费) 实现可持续盈利。 | 时间 | 相化幅度 | | --- | --- | | 2024年3月 | 5-10% | | 2024年9月 | 5-12% | | 2025年2月 | 5-10% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Doubao mobile assistant by ByteDance represents a significant step towards the realization of system-level AI agents, challenging the dominance of super apps like WeChat and Alipay in the mobile ecosystem [2][14][27] Group 1: Doubao Mobile Assistant Launch - On December 1, ByteDance's Doubao team released a technical preview of the Doubao mobile assistant, which collaborates deeply with phone manufacturers at the operating system level to enable cross-application automation [2] - The initial batch of 30,000 units sold out instantly, but within two days, major super apps like WeChat, Alipay, Taobao, and Meituan blocked the Doubao mobile assistant [3] Group 2: AI Agent Development - The Doubao mobile assistant demonstrates the feasibility of GUI agents, completing a closed-loop attempt for AI phones, but raises questions about its practical utility in real-world scenarios [5] - The evolution of AI agents has transitioned from fixed scripts and rule engines to a stage where GUI intelligent agents can understand and operate across applications, as seen with advancements from companies like Microsoft and Anthropic [6][7] Group 3: System-Level Agent vs. Super Apps - The system-level agent can understand user intent and orchestrate multiple apps, moving the focus from an app-centric model to a user-intent-centric model [8][10] - The core advantages of system-level agents include the ability to organize tasks across multiple apps and theoretical platform neutrality, alleviating long-standing issues like fragmented cross-app processes [11][12] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Conflicts - The emergence of the Doubao mobile assistant has highlighted the conflict between system-level agents and super apps, with super apps responding defensively to protect their user entry points [14][15] - The long-term outcome may not be the elimination of one model over the other, but rather a redefinition of power boundaries and responsibilities between system-level agents and super apps [17] Group 5: Manufacturer Strategies - Different manufacturers are adopting varied strategies regarding AI agents, with Huawei integrating agents into its operating system, Xiaomi focusing on ecosystem integration, and Apple maintaining a single official agent [19][23][24] - The competitive landscape suggests a future where multiple agents coexist in the Android ecosystem, while iOS maintains a clearer structure with one official agent and several plugins [24][25]

0 1 12 月 7 日，在广州举行的创新药高质量发展大会上，国家医保局同时发布新版《医保药品目录》和首版《商业健康保险创新药品目录》，标志着我国首 次在制度层面正式构建" 基本医保 + 商保补充 "的双轨协同支付体系。 引言：创新药支付机制迎来"医保+商保"双轨时代 2025 年国家医保谈判为中国创新药行业带来了一个具有分水岭意义的时刻。 过去十余年，中国创新药商业化高度依赖医保准入这一"单条通道"；而随着医保基金压力攀升与高价创新药加速上市，单一支付路径已难以支持行业持 续扩容。今年目录调整的同步发布，意味着创新药支付体系迎来历史性破冰。 从规模来看，本轮医保目录新增 114 种药品 ，其中 50 种为 1 类创新药，占比高达 44% ，为历年最高。谈判成功率升至 88% ，相比 2024 年的 76% 提高了 12 个百分点。医保目录总数随之扩大至 3253 种 ，覆盖肿瘤、罕见病、慢病、精神疾病和儿童用药等临床急需领域。随着医保准入红利持续释 放，截至 2025 年 10 月底，谈判药品累计已惠及 10.8 亿人次 ，带动药品销售规模约 6800 亿元 ，再次强化了医保对创新药可及性的基础性作用。 但 ...

多个方面报道，2024年5月底，我国工信部和财政部拟牵头60亿元专项研发资金支持固态电池技术攻关。据悉，宁德时代、比亚迪、一汽、上汽、卫蓝 新能源和吉利等六家企业获得了政府的基础研发支持，并将于今年9月进行研发专项的中期审查评估。根据消息，预计今年9月完成中试线的验收，并于 2027年完成装车验收。 六家企业中包含了四家车企，这是过去传统电解液锂电池时代不曾出现的。这意味着什么？整车厂是否正在逐步走向固态电池话语权的中枢？ 0 1 多维阵营 全球 固态电池 主要玩家分布 来源： IDTechEx 我们把这些公司根据技术路线和参与主体两个维度进行划分，可以得到一张二维的表格。两个维度交叉在一起，才能真正看清当前固态电池产业的力量 分布、竞争结构与主导权所在。 | | 整车厂 | 电池厂 | 上游材料厂 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 丰田、本田、目产、 | 宁德时代、国轩高科、 | | | | 比亚迪、一汽、广汽、 | 孚能科技、亿纬锂能、 | 住友化学、出光兴产、 | | 硫化物 | 现代、宝马、奔驰、 | 松下、三星SDI、LG、 | Solid Power、 | | | | ...

2025年的AI战场，已从单一的模型性能竞赛，演变为芯片、软件栈、云服务与开源生态的四维立体战争。 1）对OpenAI：其挑战不仅是谷歌Gemini模型性能的追赶，更是其依赖外部算力的重资产模式，表现为对微软的重度依赖，在面临谷歌TPU低TCO优势 时的根本性成本危机。 2）对英伟达：真正的威胁并非另一家GPU设计商，而是一个从硬件到软件、从应用到生态完全垂直整合，并试图用开源策略"农村包围城市"的替代系 统。 3）对行业：谷歌的崛起标志着AI基础设施领域"垂直整合"模式对"水平分工"模式的强力挑战。开源力量的壮大则确保了技术的多样性与可及性，一个多 极共存、而非一家独大的全新AI世界正在加速形成。 4）架构固定化确实撕开了一道口子，降低了专用芯片的入场门槛，使英伟达从"唯一的选项"变成了"选项之一"。甚至可以说，谷歌TPU的出现，英伟达 不仅需要面对在推理端的市场竞争，也将开始首次面对在训练端的市场竞争。 早在2015年，谷歌就为加速搜索排名和AlphaGo秘密部署了第一代TPU张量处理单元。自此，谷歌走上了一条截然不同的道路：为其最核心的AI工作负 载，定制设计专用TPU芯片、互连网络、冷却系统乃至专属编 ...

12月9日，中央电视台《朝闻天下》聚焦危化运输行业重大变革——GB21668-2025《危险货物运输车辆安全技术条件》强制性国家标准即将于2026年7 月1日全面实施。在此次权威报道中，由中汽中心武汉检验中心牵头修订、中集车辆（股票代码：301039.SZ）深度参与制定的新国标，通过中集车辆液 罐车完成核心技术解读，直观展现了我国危化运输安全体系的重构升级，更印证了中集车辆液罐车作为行业标杆的技术硬实力。 作为整合替代GB21668-2008等三项旧标的重磅新规，GB21668-2025构建了覆盖车辆设计、制造、使用全生命周期的安全技术体系，其核心升级直指行 业痛点。新标不仅强制要求中型以上车辆配备ESC电子稳定系统、AEBS自动紧急制动等智能安全装备，更对罐体结构强度、后部防护距离、新能源车辆 电池热失控防护等提出严苛要求，同时实现与联合国危险货物运输标准的全面接轨。这意味着，危化运输行业将迎来"安全门槛"的全面提升，合规不再 是底线，而是生存必备前提。 作为国内危化运输装备领域的领先企业，中集车辆深度参与了新国标的修订全过程，将多年技术积累与市场实践融入标准制定，为安全技术要求的落地 提供了关键参考。此次 ...

白酒行业三季报发布结束后，市场对于白酒行业关注度陡然增加，段永平、张坤等重新加仓茅台。复盘600519.SH持股人变化，2013-2015年茅台股上涨 的交易红利基本和内资没关系，内资在外资的"攻势"下撤退，当然也没吃到股价的翻倍。2015年茅台股东大会间隙，在食品饮料行业长期位居新财富第 一的分析师询问季克良：" 季老，您怎么看待茅台现在低迷的价格？ " 。 2013年起大幅加仓的有奥本海默基金、新加坡政府投资基金GIC以及传说中的李 录易方达香港席位。2015年诞生了太多"茅台英雄"，被誉为"中国芒格"的李录凭借贵州茅台打响了自己"价值投资"招牌的第一枪。 市场对茅台的偏爱或许可以用2013-2015年基金经理FOMO的肌肉记忆来解释，毕竟谁不想当公募的"顶级流量明星"。当下市场买入观点也比较明确： 1）茅台批价不断接近1499，市场认为越接近1499元/瓶出厂价，价格底部支撑力越发坚固；市场出现茅台批价下行、茅台股价上涨反常现象； 2）五粮液单季度业绩下滑50%，白酒行业出现真正意义上的行业出清，市场认为业绩出清接近尾声，期待2026年行业回归向上通道； 3）25年禁酒令的影响将逐步被淡化； 4）白酒行 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Medicare negotiation results indicate a significant and ongoing impact on the innovative drug industry, with expectations of continued price reductions rather than a one-time event [3][8] - The second round of negotiations confirmed that high discount rates will persist, reshaping the industry's operational landscape and investor expectations [8][20] Group 1: Medicare Negotiation Outcomes - The second round of negotiations involved 15 high-cost drugs, with price reductions reaching up to 85%, and 11 drugs seeing discounts over 50% [5][8] - Notable drugs affected include Ozempic, which saw a price drop from $959 to $274 per month, representing a 71% reduction, saving patients approximately $8,220 annually [19][20] - The consistency in high discount rates between the first and second rounds signals a shift towards a systematic approach to drug pricing reform [8][18] Group 2: Industry Implications - The innovative drug industry's business model is being fundamentally rewritten, with lifecycle values of mature drugs entering a "compression era" due to systematic price reductions [22][24] - The commercialization timeline for innovative drugs is being forced to accelerate, requiring companies to maximize revenue in the early years post-launch [24][26] - The valuation of innovative drugs is shifting from "story pricing" to "cash flow pricing," emphasizing immediate revenue generation over long-term high pricing [26][30] Group 3: Future Landscape - The second round of negotiations has clarified the future regulatory environment, reducing uncertainty and allowing companies to plan around stable policy parameters [29][30] - The focus of competition is shifting back to the core aspects of innovation, such as product quality, clinical differentiation, and commercialization capabilities [30][31] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by efficiency, speed, and differentiation, which may lead to a healthier and more transparent market for truly valuable innovations [30][31]

自从两年多以前吴泳铭接任阿里集团 CEO，阿里巴巴这艘巨轮就开始调转方向，他确立了集团未来将只围绕电商和阿里云（AI）两个重点方向投入资 源。在阿里内部全员信中，吴泳铭强调：核心业务要长期投入，不赚钱的业务要尽快变现。 2025年2月，吴泳铭宣布未来三年投入超3800亿元建设云和AI硬件基础设施，总额超过去十年总和。 9月，云栖大会上，阿里一口气发布Qwen3系列七大模型，包括万亿参数的Qwen3-Max、全模态Qwen3-Omni、编程专用Qwen3-Coder等，通义大模型全 球下载量突破6亿次，衍生模型超17万个，稳居全球开源第一。 11月17日，阿里巴巴AI的APP千问公测，公测一周，千问app的下载量就突破了1000万，成为史上增长最快的AI应用，超越ChatGPT、Sora、DeepSeek 首周表现。 11月25日，发布2026财年第二财季（2025年7月-9月）的业绩报告，营收2477.95 亿元，同比增长 5%，高于一致预期 2452.0 亿；调整后净利润103.5 亿，同比减少71.76%，低于一致预期 168.0 亿。 分板块中国电商集团、国际数字商业集团、云智能集团和其他业务收入分别为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the production cycle and future supply potential of Moutai liquor, emphasizing the unique production process and the expected market release of capacity over the next five years [2][6][17]. Production Process and Capacity - Moutai liquor is produced using a complex process involving specific ingredients and a lengthy production cycle, which includes a minimum of five years before the product can be sold [3][5]. - The design capacity reported in annual reports reflects the base liquor capacity that will only be marketable five years later, with the 2024 design capacity reported at 44,595 tons and actual capacity at 56,271.99 tons [6][9]. Capacity Conversion and Sales - The conversion coefficient for Moutai's production capacity typically ranges from 1.2x to 1.3x, influenced by annual climatic conditions [7][11]. - Actual sales figures reported in annual reports accurately reflect the sales for that year, but the production output does not directly correlate with the base liquor output from five years prior due to blending ratios and losses [8][10]. Future Sales Projections - Based on historical conversion coefficients and production data, Moutai's sales are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.12%, reaching an estimated 64,613 tons by 2030 [15][17]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for Moutai includes significant capacity expansion, with expectations for new production facilities to contribute to output starting in 2025 [12][14]. Social Inventory Analysis - Moutai's social inventory is complex and consists of both channel inventory and social inventory, with the latter further divided into speculative and collectible stocks [19][20]. - It is estimated that 30-40% of Moutai's annual sales flow into social inventory, amounting to approximately 90,000 to 95,000 tons, with a wealth retention value of around 400 billion yuan [21].