行业透视｜城投拿地“量少地偏”，一线城市代建前景几何？

Core Viewpoint - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects in first-tier cities remains low, primarily due to scarce land resources and higher profit margins leading companies to prefer self-development over outsourcing [1][3][5]. Group 1: Penetration Rate and Market Characteristics - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects in first-tier cities is significantly below the average, with less than 1% of new projects being entrusted from 2021 to 2025, compared to an average of 2.4% across other cities [3][5]. - In 2024, the penetration rate in second and third-tier cities exceeded 8%, while first-tier cities only reached 1.25%, indicating a stark contrast in market dynamics [3][4]. - The majority of entrusted projects in first-tier cities are located in non-core areas, with companies like Greentown Management handling projects in suburban regions [4][12]. Group 2: Land Acquisition and Development Trends - City investment companies (CITs) are the main drivers of entrusted construction, but their land acquisition in first-tier cities is significantly lower than in second and third-tier cities, with Beijing's CIT land acquisition remaining below 40% [7][9]. - The low land acquisition rate by CITs in first-tier cities limits the demand for entrusted construction projects, as major state-owned enterprises dominate the investment landscape [9][10]. Group 3: Market Segmentation and Risks - There is a notable disparity in market heat between core and non-core areas, with core area projects experiencing high sales while suburban projects struggle [11][12]. - The distribution of CIT land acquisition shows that a significant portion is in suburban areas, which may further reduce the willingness to develop in these regions [11][12]. - Companies entering the entrusted construction market in first-tier cities face high barriers due to the dominance of leading firms and the need for strong brand reputation and product quality to compete effectively [12][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of the entrusted construction industry in first-tier cities is expected to see a continued low penetration rate, with intense competition and high barriers for smaller firms [15]. - Companies are advised to carefully assess surrounding market conditions when undertaking entrusted projects, leveraging brand strength and product quality to enhance project value and sales velocity [15].