中美关税大降，然后呢?

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade agreement has exceeded expectations, leading to a significant reduction in tariffs and a positive impact on global markets, with both US and Chinese currencies strengthening and a notable decline in risk aversion indicators [2][5]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The US and China have agreed to significantly lower tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs by 91% and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [5][6]. - The effective tariff rate (ETR) for the US has decreased from 22.8% to 13.1%, marking the lowest level since 1941 [5][6]. - The reduction in tariffs is expected to restore normal trade activities between the two countries, with a target tariff rate of 30% deemed feasible for both exporters and consumers [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, US stock markets experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 2.81% and the S&P 500 increasing by 3.26% [2][3]. - European markets also saw positive movements, with the STOXX 600 index rising by 1.2% and notable gains in logistics and shipping companies [3]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, fell by 15.98% to 18.40, indicating reduced market fear [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Treasury reported a budget surplus of $258.4 billion for April, with customs duties reaching a record high of $16.3 billion, a 130% increase year-on-year [7]. - The total customs revenue for the fiscal year 2025 has reached $63.3 billion, reflecting an 18% increase compared to the previous year [7].