40天，美国冷静了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent US-China Geneva trade talks, highlighting the significant reduction of tariffs by both countries and the broader context of the US's retreat from global economic engagement while simultaneously seeking to maintain control over international trade dynamics [2][4][6]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The US and China agreed to mutually cancel 91% of their additional tariffs, with the US also suspending 24% of "reciprocal tariffs" [2]. - This agreement is seen as a response to the expectations of producers and consumers in both countries, aligning with their interests and those of the global community [2]. Group 2: US Economic Isolation - Over the past 20 years, the US economy has gradually distanced itself from the global economy, with a notable decline in trade dependency compared to the global average [7][9]. - The US's trade agreements from 2000 to 2023 (14 agreements) lag significantly behind the EU (49), China (22), and Japan (19), indicating a reduced engagement in international trade [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Trends - From 2014 to 2023, the US has seen limited greenfield investment, with most years failing to exceed $10 billion, contrasting sharply with the EU's performance [10][11]. - The share of US companies in global foreign investment has dropped from a historical peak of 30% to a record low of 14% in 2023, reflecting a trend of reduced overseas engagement [11]. Group 4: Political and Economic Dynamics - The rise of economic inequality in the US has fueled populism, leading to a political narrative that blames external factors for domestic economic issues [13][18]. - Both major political parties in the US have shifted towards emphasizing industrial policy and trade restrictions, aiming to create more domestic manufacturing jobs and reduce reliance on foreign economies [18][20]. Group 5: Global Trade Landscape - The article suggests that the US's attempts to regain control over global trade through tariffs may backfire, as other nations are less likely to acquiesce to US pressure [27]. - The absence of US participation in global trade may not lead to a collapse of the economic order; instead, it could encourage other countries to establish alternative cooperative mechanisms [27][28].