是说芯语·2025-05-13 12:25Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment towards SMIC is positive, driven by strong customer demand and the trend of localization in production, despite facing uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical tensions [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - SMIC's management maintains a positive outlook on customer demand, supported by localized production and diversified partnerships, with plans for continued capital expenditure through 2025 to seize long-term growth opportunities [2]. - The company has achieved high capacity utilization rates in recent quarters, with expectations for this trend to continue until Q3 2025, indicating strong order visibility [2]. - SMIC's long-term gross margin target remains at 20%, with expectations of 18.0% in Q1 2024 and 22.5% in Q1 2025, despite rising depreciation costs and short-term ASP pressures [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Projections - According to Goldman Sachs, SMIC's revenue is projected to grow from $1.750 billion in Q1 2024 to $2.247 billion in 2025, with a gross profit increase from $240 million to $506 million in the same period [6]. - JP Morgan's report indicates that SMIC's Q1 revenue was 5% below market expectations, primarily due to ASP declines, while strong shipment growth was noted, particularly in 12-inch wafers [7]. - JP Morgan forecasts a revenue decline of 4-6% for Q2 2024, with a cautious outlook for the second half of 2025, adjusting revenue growth expectations down to 10-11% [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating for SMIC, citing attractive valuation and long-term growth potential driven by domestic demand and margin recovery [4]. - Conversely, JP Morgan holds a "reduce" rating, highlighting concerns over weak revenue growth prospects in 2025 and ongoing cost pressures affecting margins [8].