【笔记20250512— 关税相互妥协，市场预期偏弱】

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a sideways consolidation phase, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears, with an uncertain direction. A significant catalyst is needed to break this equilibrium [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is balanced and loose, with long-term bond yields showing a noticeable decline. The central bank conducted a 1.8 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 4.05 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.25 billion yuan [1]. - The overnight risk assets were boosted by the US-China tariff negotiations, but the stock market opened high and then declined, reflecting a loose funding environment and fluctuating interest rates [2]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Trading Volume - The weighted rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.43% (up 9 basis points), R007 at 1.53% (down 7 basis points), and R014 at 1.58% (down 1 basis point). The total transaction volume for R001 was 64.57 billion yuan, an increase of 4.91 billion yuan, while R007 had a transaction volume of 8.73 billion yuan, up by 2.52 billion yuan [2]. - The bond market sentiment is stable, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.6775% and fluctuating down to approximately 1.662%. This stability is attributed to three main factors: a loose funding environment, the stock market's habitual high open and low close, and the persistent high tariffs compared to pre-April 2 levels [3].