当我们感悟到异常，发现预期差时，阻碍我们去行动的最大障碍就是"希望交易"，尤其是，当市场已经开始出现相应的波动后，"回头看"会让我们后悔没 有在最佳的位置买入或卖出，于是就希望市场回到之前的位置再执行。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250926— 同业存单连续四个月净融资为负（+央行大额投放14天期逆回购+股市小幅下跌+资金面好转=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率涨跌不一。 早盘债市情绪略偏谨慎，10Y国债利率微幅低开在1.80%后小幅上至1.81%。央行14天逆回购大额投放带动利率回落至1.80%。上午股市微跌，利率在 1.80%-1.805%区间窄幅震荡。午后股市继续走弱，利率最低下至1.795%，后小幅回升至1.799%。 资金面均衡，资金利率明显回落，DR001下行超15BP至1.32%附近，DR007下行7BP至1.53%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.09.26) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代吗 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of not allowing cognitive biases to predict the market, advocating for a strict adherence to entry and exit principles for each trade [1] - It highlights the current balanced funding situation, with a slight decrease in long-term bond yields [3][5] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 483.5 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan after 487 billion yuan matured [3][5] Group 2 - The overnight market remained calm, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.815% and peaking at 1.836%, reflecting cautious sentiment in the bond market [5][6] - The article discusses the shift in economic narratives, from "South Wall Economics" last year to "Narrative Economics" this year, indicating a change in market sentiment and expectations [6] - The article provides detailed interest rate data for various bonds, showing fluctuations in yields across different maturities [9]

上午资金面偏紧，午后转松，资金利率小幅上行，DR001在1.44%附近，DR007因跨月上至1.59%附近。 同样的数据、政策或资金面，在不同的阶段对市场形成的预期差却完全不一样，最终导致的债券波动方向也就不尽相同。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250924— 债农：萧瑟秋风今又是，换了人间（-央行季末持续净回笼-股市走强+央行增量续作MLF-上午资金面偏紧=小上)】 资金面偏紧转松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展4015亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有4185亿元7天期逆回购到期，净回笼170亿元。 【今日盘面】 250011 1.7975/1.8200/1.7950/1.8150 +1.70 250215 1.9380/1.9650/1.9370/1.9540 +1.20 2500002 2.0925/2.1199/2.0910/2.1140 +1.50 -------------------------- -------------------------- | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.09.24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

没有谁是投资天才，再好的投资体系都需要不断地在实战中加以练习。要想遏制思维惯性和主观臆断，首先要树立一个理念： 每笔投资都是一次试错 。 这就是一种概率思维，不要在每次入场前都信心百倍，而要在入场前先想好"错了该如何应对"。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250923— 股债双杀（-公募销售费用会议纪要引担忧-午后股市反弹+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展2761亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2870亿元7天期逆回购到期，净回笼109亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率微幅回落，DR001在1.41%附近，DR007在1.48%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.09.23) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 应尚利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R0 ...

资金面均衡，资金利率小幅回落，DR001在1.46%附近，DR007在1.51%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.09.19) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成义堂 | 变化量 ( 亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.50 | -8 | | 1.80 | -50 | 62718. 08 | 672. 51 | 87.64 | | R007 | 1.52 | -5 | M | 1.73 | -77 | 6720. 35 | -801. 20 | 9.39 | | R014 | 1.67 | -2 | | 1.95 | -5 | 793.51 | -382. 37 | 1. 11 | | R1M | 1.66 | 0 | now | 1.90 | -5 | 409.96 | -215. 77 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's fluctuations are driven by human nature, which remains constant and predictable, leading to similar outcomes despite different narratives in each cycle [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The expectation of a 50 basis points (BP) rate cut by the Federal Reserve did not materialize, resulting in a market pullback after reaching a high of 3899 points [5]. - The central bank conducted a 4870 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 1950 billion yuan after 2920 billion yuan matured [3]. - The interbank funding environment shifted from tight to loose, with the overnight repurchase rate (DR001) around 1.51% and the 7-day rate (DR007) at approximately 1.56% [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have risen significantly, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing from 1.7675% to 1.7825% during the trading day [5]. - The bond market exhibited a cautious sentiment in the morning, with a slight uptick in yields, while the stock market initially rose before experiencing a sharp decline in the afternoon [5]. - The trading volume in the interbank market showed a total of 71609.98 million yuan, with a slight increase in the overall transaction volume [4]. Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 44.68 points or 1.15%, with a total trading volume of 1.37 trillion yuan [6]. - The market experienced a transition from attempting to breach the 3900-point mark to defending the 3800-point level, indicating volatility and uncertainty among investors [6]. - The stock market's decline was perceived differently by various market participants, with some viewing it as a stabilization of a slow bull market while others feared a shift towards a bear market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of expectation discrepancies in the market, categorizing them into two types: same-direction expectation discrepancies and opposite-direction expectation discrepancies. Same-direction discrepancies occur when market expectations are exceeded or not met, while opposite-direction discrepancies involve outcomes that are completely contrary to market expectations [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current funding environment is described as balanced but slightly tight, with a notable decline in long-term bond yields [3]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 4.185 billion yuan, with a net injection of 1.145 billion yuan after 3.04 billion yuan matured [3]. - The stock market experienced a slight increase, supported by favorable results from the 20-year government bond issuance and rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases [5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.78% and fluctuated within a narrow range, with the highest rate reaching 1.7875% before settling at approximately 1.763% [5]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate slight increases, with R001 at 1.55% (up 2 basis points) and R007 at 1.55% [4]. - The bond market is experiencing a mix of expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with speculation on a 50 basis point cut gaining traction [6]. Group 3: Yield Trends - The yield on 1-year government bonds is at 1.3950%, while the 10-year yield stands at 1.7630%, reflecting a significant change in the yield curve [9]. - The article highlights the performance of various bonds, with notable movements in yields across different maturities, indicating a dynamic bond market environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a personal investment system to navigate market emotions effectively and maintain a strategic focus without being swayed by market fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The article discusses the recent developments in the bond market, highlighting a slight decline in long-term bond yields following the announcement of a framework agreement between the U.S. and China regarding TikTok [4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 287 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 40 billion yuan, indicating a slight tightening in the funding environment [2]. - The overnight funding rates showed a minor increase, with DR001 around 1.44% and DR007 at approximately 1.50% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated between 1.805% and 1.81% before settling around 1.78% after the announcement of potential full curve bond purchases by the central bank [4]. - The article notes that the 30-year government bond futures demonstrated a "double bottom" pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal as the market reacts to the central bank's actions [5]. - The article anticipates that if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cuts rates by 50 basis points, it could positively influence domestic rate cut expectations [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate a slight downward trend, with R001 at 1.48% and R007 at 1.50%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [3]. - The article provides a detailed breakdown of interest rates across different maturities, showing a range from 1.3975% for 1-year bonds to 2.0750% for ultra-long bonds, with varying changes in basis points [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of abandoning personal predictions and biases in favor of strictly adhering to technical rules and trading systems in investment transactions [1] Economic Data and Market Performance - August economic data fell below expectations, leading to a slight decline in the stock market [6] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.79% and later dropped to 1.786% before rising to 1.8% [6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated progress in technical details in discussions with China, which may influence market sentiment [6] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 280 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 31.5 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos and treasury cash deposits [4] - The funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.41% and DR007 at approximately 1.48% [5] Market Sentiment and Reactions - The bond market experienced volatility, with a notable sell-off towards the end of the trading day, attributed to concerns over "involution" and a loss of trust among investors [7] - The article draws a parallel between the bond market's current sentiment and a restaurant's brand image collapse, highlighting the fragility of investor confidence [7] Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The article provides detailed interest rates for various government bonds, indicating a range of yields from 1.3975% for 1-year bonds to 2.0940% for ultra-long bonds [10] - The yield on AAA-rated bonds shows a slight increase, with 1-year bonds at 1.6100% and 5-year bonds at 2.3300% [10]

Group 1 - The central bank has restarted bond purchases, indicating a shift in monetary policy to support the economy [3][6][7] - The central bank conducted a 230 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 41.7 billion yuan [3] - The market is experiencing a slight decline in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.79% to 1.805% [6][7] Group 2 - The interbank funding rates have slightly decreased, with DR001 at approximately 1.36% and DR007 at around 1.46% [4] - The weighted average rates for various repo codes show minor changes, with R001 at 1.40% and R007 at 1.47% [5] - The overall trading volume in the interbank market has decreased, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [5][6]