特朗普再威胁加税，进出口数据超预期，股市延续偏强，央行公告买断式逆回购，债市利率微幅下行。 在熊市或牛市进行的过程中，往往会有中场休息的时候，这时没有方向性的横盘震荡在所难免，而很多人在这个时候就会耐不住寂寞，以为熊市或牛市结 束，觉得自己比别人聪明，进而提前入场操作。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250807— 川普再恐吓，利率应声下（+特朗普关税威胁-进出口数据超预期-股市延续偏强+央行7000亿买断式逆回购+资金面均衡偏松=微下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1607亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2832亿元逆回购到期，净回笼1225亿元。此外，2025年8月8日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率 招标、多重价位中标方式开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.45%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.08.07) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 ...

今日"股商"接着奏乐接着舞，但我债也没在怕的，国债期货在5日线和20日线之间玩"夹缝生存"已经6个 交易日。债农屏住呼吸、静待方向选择，不知催化剂会是股市、数据、还是一级发行？ "一鼓作气，再而衰，三而竭。"打战如此，做投资也是如此，因为背后的人性是相通的，投资中也是人 与人之间的搏斗。所以，不要自作聪明地以为，同样的行情出现两次后，自己就掌握了规律，看到了机 会，就期待行情出现第三次，进而从中获利。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250806— 牛市啤酒，简称"牛啤"（-股市延续偏强-商品多数上涨+继续传大行买债+资金面均衡 偏松=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展1385亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3090亿元逆回购到期，净回笼1705亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.46%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.08.06) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | ...

【笔记20250804— 资本相对论：债券加税，利好权益（-股市低开高走-债市对增值税新规解读存在分歧+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展5448亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有4958亿元逆回购到期，净投放490亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.31%附近，DR007在1.45%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.08.04) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.35 | 0 | 1-11 | 1.70 | -49 | 68154. 29 | -838. 40 | 89. 65 | | R007 | 1.48 | -1 | | 1.66 | -4 | 6752. 56 | -1 ...

【笔记20250801— 增值税消息突袭，债市上演"跳楼机"行情（+PMI低于预期+股市和商品表现偏弱+恢复征收国债利息增值税+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1260亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有7893亿元逆回购到期，净回笼6633亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率明显回落，DR001在1.31%附近，DR007在1.42%附近。 阴跌或阴涨最可持续，这是在积蓄能量，就像海浪在没有碰到岩石之前，都是由一个个小浪逐渐叠加外推，而量价齐升之时，就是储蓄的能量达到最高 点，最后的高潮，也是一次能量的集中爆发和释放。 ——笔记哥《应对》 早盘债市情绪略偏弱，10Y国债利率微幅高开后小幅上行。7月标普全球制造业PMI为49.5，低于预期和前值的50.4。股市与商品表现偏弱，利率先下至 1.6975%、后小幅回升。尾盘财政部公告恢复征收国债利息收入增值税，利率先上后下、收于1.6975%。 下班前一秒：下一步该不会是取消公募免税吧？吓人！还是先止盈一波，周末愉快！(10Y国债利率小上1BP) 今日王者：票面3%的30Y国债老券230023，一度下行超4BP，真正的票息资产！ ...

央行公开市场开展2832亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3310亿元逆回购到期，净回笼478亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率小幅回升，DR001在1.40%附近，DR007在1.55%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 07. 31) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | (亿 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.56 | 20 | | 2. 48 | 54 | 49463. 47 | -4009. 97 | 92.00 | | R007 | 1.58 | 3 | -------- | 1.80 | -190 | 3800. 93 | -8281. 33 | 7.07 | | R014 | 1.58 | 3 | NN | 3.50 | 120 | 469. 58 | -270. 84 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consistency in investment strategies, particularly regarding entry and exit points, and highlights the need for a clear approach to short-term versus long-term investments [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 3.09 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 1.505 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 1.585 billion yuan [2]. - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with funding rates continuing to decline, specifically DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 around 1.52% [2]. - The interbank funding rates show a weighted average of R001 at 1.36%, up by 3 basis points, and R007 at 1.61%, with a transaction volume of 120.82 billion yuan, an increase of 654.37 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Economic Events - The US-China talks concluded without significant breakthroughs, with both parties agreeing to extend the tariff truce period [4]. - The political bureau meeting did not exceed expectations, and the stock market experienced fluctuations, with bond yields showing a downward trend [4]. - The meeting's language changed from previous discussions, omitting references to "low-price" competition, indicating a shift in focus towards managing high-price competition due to rising commodity prices [4]. Group 3: Taxation Insights - Individual income tax revenue increased by 8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, raising questions about potential undisclosed salary increases or adjustments in tax collection [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of probability thinking in investment, suggesting that investors should prepare for potential losses before entering a position, rather than being overly confident [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 449.2 billion yuan, with 214.8 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan [2]. - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.36% and DR007 at approximately 1.56% [2]. - The weighted rates for various repo codes indicate a decline, with R001 at 1.40% (down 9 basis points) and R007 at 1.61% (down 1 basis point) [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.715% and fluctuated to around 1.72%, reflecting cautious sentiment in the bond market amid ongoing US-China trade talks [4]. - The article notes a significant shift in bond market sentiment, with the 10-year government bond futures showing volatility, indicating a potential disconnect between market expectations and economic realities [4]. - The article highlights concerns regarding declining rental prices for office spaces and a sharp drop in the number of kindergartens, suggesting a challenging economic environment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real risk faced by investors is the expectation gap between their predictions and market movements, which is highlighted by the phrase "risk is the difference between your expectations and market trends" [1] Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 4,958 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 3,251 billion yuan after 1,707 billion yuan matured [2] - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with funding rates continuing to decline; DR001 is around 1.46% and DR007 is around 1.58% [3] - The central bank's continued large net injections have led to a slight increase in the stock market, while commodities have seen significant declines and bond market rates have fluctuated downwards [4] Market Performance - The interbank funding rates have shown a downward trend, with R001 at 1.49% (down 6 basis points) and R007 at 1.63% (down 7 basis points), indicating a total transaction volume of 68,928.38 billion yuan [5] - The commodity market experienced a sharp decline, with various products hitting their daily limit down, while the bond market showed positive sentiment with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.715% [5] Social Policy Impact - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy policy, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year, marks a significant breakthrough in social policy aimed at improving birth rates [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of market sentiment, indicating that negative news can significantly impact market dynamics, especially when confidence is low [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a large net injection of 601.8 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 1,875 billion yuan maturing today [2]. - The funding environment has shifted from tight to loose, with overnight rates declining; DR001 fell by 13 basis points to approximately 1.52%, while DR007 increased by 8 basis points to around 1.65% [3]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes showed a decline in R001 by 14 basis points to 1.55%, while R007 increased by 9 basis points to 1.69% [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly higher at 1.7425%, reaching a peak of 1.752% due to tight funding conditions, before dropping to a low of 1.716% [5]. - The bond market is experiencing a shift in focus, with investors increasingly looking at commodity prices and their impact on bond yields, indicating a need for a broader understanding of market dynamics [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Commodity Prices - The article highlights a strong performance in commodity markets, with various commodities like coking coal reaching limit-up prices, while the bond futures market experienced a decline [5]. - There is a growing sentiment among investors regarding the potential for commodity prices to rise significantly, with speculative targets for the stock market being discussed [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of market conditions on investment decisions, emphasizing the importance of recognizing opportunities and risks rather than succumbing to "hope trading" [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is tightening, with a significant increase in long-term bond yields [1]. - The central bank conducted a 331 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan due to 450.5 billion yuan reverse repos maturing [1]. - The overnight funding rates have risen, with DR001 increasing by 28 basis points to approximately 1.65% and DR007 rising by 9 basis points to around 1.58% [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower at 1.7025% but quickly rose to around 1.7125% due to tight funding conditions [3]. - The stock market and commodities continue to strengthen, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points [3]. - The issuance of long-term government bonds is weak, and there is an increase in redemptions from bond funds, indicating a negative feedback loop in the bond market [4]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is addressing "involutionary competition," which is causing various sectors to engage in a "counter-involution" trend [4]. - The market is questioning whether aggressive measures can achieve inflation and prosperity without significant costs [4].