别高兴太早，摩根士丹利警告：美股前路上的“雷”还没排光

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a recent surge in the US stock market, caution is advised as not all favorable conditions for sustained growth have been met [1][2][4] - Morgan Stanley analysts indicate that for a more durable rise in the US stock market, four conditions need to be fulfilled, of which only two have progressed: optimism around a trade agreement with China and stabilization in earnings revisions [2] - The S&P 500 index has recovered nearly half of its losses since February, attributed to the US government's engagement in trade negotiations with other countries [2][3] Group 2 - The current earnings season has seen a record number of mentions of "tariffs" by US companies, reflecting concerns over tariff uncertainties, with approximately 30 companies having canceled or suspended their earnings forecasts [3] - Following a significant rise, the S&P 500 index has surpassed previous resistance levels around 5700 points, returning to the range of 5700 - 6100 points prior to what was termed "liberation day" on April 2 [3] - For the US stock market to achieve more significant gains, further progress in US-China trade relations and improved earnings performance from listed companies are essential [4]