热点思考｜中国制造“难替代性”？

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the current easing of US-China tariff tensions, drawing parallels to the previous tariff phase under the Trump administration, highlighting the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing as a key theme [2][76]. Group 1: Underestimated Tariff Exemption Mechanism - The tariff exemption mechanism operates independently and is primarily initiated by US importers, not reliant on US-China negotiations [3][10]. - During the first tariff phase, the highest percentage of exempted goods reached 60%, with a total of 50 rounds of exemptions since 2018, amounting to a maximum of $118.3 billion [3][13]. - The current round of exemptions is implemented more rapidly than the previous phase, with the exemption list accounting for 26.5% of total US imports from China in 2024, including significant categories like mobile phones (40.3%) and computers (35.3%) [3][15]. Group 2: Reasons for Tariff Exemptions - Exempted products generally have a high dependency on Chinese imports, with significant exemption rates for items like rubber and plastics (62.9%) and furniture (62.2%) [4][20]. - Tariffs have led to increased industry costs, with a clear correlation between the proportion of goods subject to tariffs and the rise in Producer Price Index (PPI) for affected industries [4][25]. - The exemptions also aim to alleviate supply chain mismatches in the US, particularly in industries where domestic competitiveness has declined [5][30]. Group 3: Assessing the "Irreplaceability" of Chinese Manufacturing - Five perspectives are used to evaluate the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, focusing on industries that are difficult to decouple from Chinese supply chains, such as machinery and electrical equipment [6][80]. - Industries with high import price increases and low reductions in dependency on Chinese goods, like rubber and plastics, indicate a persistent reliance on Chinese manufacturing [7][45]. - High price premiums for Chinese products in the US market, such as electric vehicles and consumer electronics, demonstrate their strong market competitiveness despite tariff pressures [8][51]. Group 4: Challenges in Indirect Decoupling - Certain industries, such as consumer electronics and textiles, face limited competition from alternative suppliers, making it difficult for the US to indirectly decouple from China [8][57]. - The overlap in product categories between US imports from China and other countries, such as Mexico and Vietnam, highlights the challenges in finding suitable replacements for Chinese goods [8][62].