关税影响尚未显现——4月美国通胀数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of cooling inflation in the U.S., highlighting the April CPI data and its implications for future economic conditions and monetary policy [1][10]. Inflation Trends - April CPI year-on-year growth slightly decreased to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, while core CPI remained stable at 2.8% [1]. - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, influenced by global trade uncertainties and a high base from the previous year [3]. - Core services inflation decreased to 3.6%, with housing and transportation services continuing to show downward trends [5]. - Core goods inflation turned positive at 0.1%, primarily due to a lower base from the previous year, with some categories like furniture and appliances showing increases [6]. Energy Sector Insights - The year-on-year growth rate for energy in the CPI recorded a decline of 3.7%, with gasoline prices dropping by 11.8% [3]. - Brent crude oil prices fell to an average of $67.9 per barrel in April, further decreasing to $62.7 per barrel in May, indicating a potential for sustained low energy prices [3]. Service Sector Analysis - Core services inflation pressure is expected to continue easing, with stable housing inflation and a slight decrease in owner-equivalent rent growth to 4.3% [5]. - Transportation service prices also showed a year-on-year decline, contributing to the overall easing of service inflation [5]. Consumer Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations rose, with the one-year expectation increasing to 6.5%, the highest since November 2023, driven by concerns over tariff policies [8]. Monetary Policy Implications - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, and bond yields fell, suggesting market reactions to the inflation trends [10]. - The ongoing tariff policies and their delayed impact on inflation may lead to a postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite the cooling inflation [10].