“抛售美国”交易：谁是美元贬值的幕后推手？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar's value, attributing the decline to global investor sentiment and the impact of Trump's economic policies rather than direct actions from major foreign holders like Japan and China [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Depreciation Factors - The US dollar index (DXY) has decreased by 9% this year, raising questions about who is selling dollars and the underlying motivations [1]. - Initial speculation pointed to Japan and China as potential culprits for the dollar's decline, but there is insufficient evidence to support this claim [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty stemming from Trump's inconsistent economic policies has led to a broad withdrawal of investors from the US market [2]. Group 2: Foreign Bond Sales - Japan has reportedly sold $20 billion worth of foreign bonds recently, but it remains unclear if this is linked to the volatility in the US bond market [2][3]. - There is no substantial evidence that hedge funds are behind the dollar's decline, as recent reports from the CFTC show no significant liquidation of leveraged positions [3][4]. - Both China and Japan lack a strong incentive to sell US bonds, as doing so would likely lead to currency appreciation and negatively impact their export markets [4]. Group 3: Global Investment Trends - A broader trend of investors seeking to distance themselves from the US market is evident, with many now viewing it as a risk asset rather than a safe haven [5][8]. - The shipping industry reflects this trend, with a significant increase in "blank sailings" to the US, indicating reduced trade activity due to tariff policies [5][8]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that as long as the trade war continues, the depreciation of the dollar is likely to persist, with ongoing reassessment of risk and return associated with dollar assets [8].