美国关税战只会加快中国科技界自给自足的步伐

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Donald Trump's tariff policies on the global market and specifically on China's technology industry, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions and the strategic responses from China [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's "liberation day" tariff policies have raised concerns about a prolonged trade war, despite signals of potential agreements [1]. - Since the initiation of the first round of tariffs in 2018, China has been preparing for further trade conflicts, focusing on building a robust technology supply chain [1][2]. - The U.S. bipartisan consensus on technology restrictions against China, including chip export controls, is expected to persist regardless of tariff adjustments [2]. Group 2: China's Technological Advancements - China's self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry has significantly improved compared to five years ago, despite still lagging behind in cutting-edge technology [2]. - The success of the DeepSeek AI model has lowered the barriers for applying large language models, showcasing China's growing tech capabilities [2]. - Chinese companies are shifting their focus from reliance on controversial foreign chips, such as Nvidia's H20, to domestic alternatives like Huawei's AI systems, which may lead to substantial revenue growth for Huawei [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - Since 2018, many companies have relocated manufacturing to countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, but they still cannot completely abandon the Chinese market due to its scale and infrastructure advantages [3]. - Trump's punitive tariffs are expected to increase consumer costs and force U.S. tech giants to reassess their long-standing supply chain strategies [3]. - Chinese firms are adopting a cautious approach by pausing U.S. operations and focusing on non-U.S. markets to mitigate risks [3]. Group 4: AI Ecosystem and Future Outlook - Tariffs indirectly affect China's AI planning, as executives reassess AI initiatives, impacting the startup ecosystem [4]. - The development of AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors relies on international collaboration, despite the emphasis on strategic autonomy [4]. - The U.S. may attempt to maintain its tech leadership through tariffs and export controls, but these actions could accelerate China's self-sufficiency in technology [5]. - Future cooperation in areas like climate technology and healthcare remains a possibility, despite competitive tensions [5].