阿波罗首席经济学家：中美贸易战将重创美国小企业

Core Viewpoint - The trade between China and the United States is experiencing a sharp decline, leading to potential shortages in U.S. stores and a dual crisis of rising prices and unemployment [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The shipping volume from China surged in late March and early April as companies rushed to transport goods before tariffs took effect, but it sharply declined after the tariffs were implemented on April 9 [1]. - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on most Chinese goods, while China has responded with 125% tariffs on many U.S. imports, although some exemptions have been introduced for specific industries [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The decline in demand is impacting revenue across the shipping and logistics industry, leading to significant layoffs that could further drag down the economy [3][4]. - Small businesses, which rely heavily on affordable imported goods, are particularly vulnerable due to their limited financial reserves compared to larger corporations [4][5]. - In 2023, small businesses employed approximately 62 million Americans, accounting for over 46% of private sector employment, highlighting their critical role in the economy [4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Business Sentiment - Recent surveys from regional Federal Reserve banks indicate a sharp decline in new orders and stagnation in capital expenditure plans, reflecting growing anxiety among businesses [5]. - Companies like Southwest Airlines, Chipotle, and PepsiCo have expressed concerns in their earnings calls about consumers reducing spending amid economic uncertainty [5].