Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing price war in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and traditional fuel vehicles, highlighting the impact of market concentration and competition dynamics on pricing strategies [2][3][16]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - In 2024, the number of discounted vehicle models in China reached 227, 1.5 times that of 2023 and 2.3 times that of 2022, indicating a significant increase in price competition [2]. - The price war in the automotive sector is seen as a reflection of broader societal "involution," where companies are pressured to lower prices while simultaneously calling for a shift from price competition to value competition [2][3]. - The emergence of price wars is often linked to changes in market concentration, where industries transition from fragmented competition to oligopolistic structures, making price wars inevitable [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Structure - The last major price war in the memory chip sector occurred during the 2008 financial crisis, leading to a significant market consolidation where only a few players remained [7][8]. - The smartphone market in China experienced a similar trajectory, with a vast number of models leading to intense price competition before consolidating into a few dominant brands [10][11]. - The automotive industry is currently witnessing a similar pattern, with the number of passenger vehicle models increasing from 515 in 2016 to 800 in 2019, leading to a fragmented market ripe for price wars [12][13]. Group 3: Impact of New Energy Vehicles - The competition between new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has intensified, with the rapid increase in market participants outpacing market growth, making price wars unavoidable [13][16]. - The shift towards electric vehicles is disrupting the long-standing market structure of the automotive industry, leading to a reallocation of market shares and the emergence of new competitors [24][30]. - As the market for electric vehicles expands, investment in both vehicle production and supply chains is expected to increase, further fragmenting the market [25]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Consolidation - The article suggests that the ongoing price wars are indicative of an impending industry consolidation, where the most competitive players will survive while others may exit the market [39][40]. - The automotive market is not yet fully consolidated, but the new energy vehicle sector is showing signs of significant concentration, with the top ten companies holding approximately 78% of the market share [41]. - The article concludes that the price war, while brutal, is a necessary phase for the industry to achieve a more stable and profitable market structure in the future [45][50].
汽车价格战还要打多久?