中金：股债汇“三杀”与美元资产困局

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "triple kill" in the US stock, bond, and currency markets, indicating a significant change in the inflation environment and the dollar cycle, where the hedging ability of safe assets like bonds and cash has declined, making it difficult to offset losses in risk assets like stocks and commodities [1][3][11]. Group 1: Historical Context of "Triple Kill" - The "triple kill" phenomenon is rare in the US market, primarily because US stocks have historically been in a bull market, with bonds and the dollar typically rising during stock downturns to prevent such occurrences [4][6]. - Historical instances of prolonged "triple kill" occurred during the high inflation era of the 1970s and 1980s, where high inflation eroded asset values, leading to simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds [6][7]. - The article highlights that since 2022, the "triple kill" has resurfaced, with increased frequency due to a shift in the inflation environment, causing a positive correlation between stocks and bonds [8][11]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The decline in the hedging ability of US bonds and the dollar has led to a scarcity of safe assets, increasing the appeal of gold as a hedge [11][25]. - The article suggests that the attractiveness of non-US risk assets, particularly European and Chinese stocks, is rising due to the uncertainty surrounding US stocks [11][34]. - The article emphasizes the need to be cautious about the potential for a prolonged and recurring "triple kill" in US assets, as negative shocks could still occur despite recent improvements in US-China trade relations [12][13]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The article recommends maintaining a low allocation to US stocks due to their high valuation and sensitivity to negative shocks, while suggesting an overweight position in Chinese bonds as a safer asset [17][33]. - It also notes that European stocks may offer relative advantages due to favorable policies and valuation, with a significant discount compared to US stocks [39]. - The article concludes that while gold prices have surged, they may be overvalued, indicating potential volatility ahead, but the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact [27][31].