锦秋基金臧天宇：2025年AI创投趋势

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment trends in the AI sector, highlighting a shift from foundational models to application layers as the core focus for investment opportunities [1][7][11]. Group 1: Domestic AI Investment Trends - JinQiu Capital's investment portfolio serves as a small sample window to observe domestic AI investment trends [2]. - Approximately 60% of the projects are concentrated in the application layer, driven by improved model intelligence and significantly reduced invocation costs [6][7]. - The investment focus has shifted from foundational models, particularly large language models (LLMs), to application-oriented projects as foundational model capabilities mature [6][7]. Group 2: Key Investment Areas - The application layer is the primary focus, with nearly 40% of investments in Agent AI, 20% in creative tools, and another 20% in content and emotional consumption [8]. - Bottom-layer computing power and Physical AI are also critical areas, with investments aimed at enhancing model training and inference capabilities [9][10]. - The middle layer/toolchain investments are limited, focusing on large model security and reinforcement learning infrastructure [10]. Group 3: Trends in AI Intelligence and Cost - The continuous improvement of AI intelligence and the decreasing cost of acquiring this intelligence are the two core trends driving investment decisions [12][13]. - The industry has shifted focus from pre-training scaling laws to optimizing post-training phases, leading to the emergence of "Test Time Scaling" [14][15]. - The "Agent AI" era is characterized by the development of various agents to address practical operational issues [15]. Group 4: Cost Reduction in AI - A significant decrease in token costs has been observed, with prices dropping to as low as 0.8 RMB per million tokens, making applications economically viable [19][20]. - The cost of reasoning models remains a challenge due to their higher token consumption, necessitating further innovations to reduce inference costs [21][22]. - Innovations in underlying computing architectures, such as processing-in-memory and optical computing, are expected to drive long-term cost reductions [23][24]. Group 5: Opportunities in the Application Layer - The combination of improved intelligence and reduced costs has led to a surge in entrepreneurial activity within the application layer [26]. - The AI era presents new variables, including richer information and service offerings, as well as more precise recommendations evolving into proactive services [29][30]. - The marginal cost of content creation and service execution has significantly decreased, enabling scalable and distributable service models [31][33]. Group 6: Future of Physical AI - The potential for achieving general-purpose robots in the Physical AI domain is highlighted as a key area for future development [37]. - Data remains a core challenge for the development of general-purpose robots, necessitating collaborative optimization of hardware and software [40].