与中国医药产业脱钩？美药企成本或将增加一半

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's desire to reduce reliance on Chinese pharmaceutical supplies, particularly in the context of raw materials and innovative drug development. It highlights the challenges and potential costs associated with such a decoupling, emphasizing that U.S. pharmaceutical companies may face increased costs if they attempt to shift production back to the U.S. [1][2][3] Summary by Sections U.S.-China Pharmaceutical Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary's statement indicates a reluctance to fully decouple from China, while expressing a desire to bring certain industries, like pharmaceuticals, back to the U.S. [1] - Chinese pharmaceutical professionals argue that U.S. drug companies heavily rely on Chinese raw materials, and a forced decoupling could lead to significant cost increases for U.S. firms. [1][2] Dependency on Chinese Raw Materials - In 2019, only 12% of raw materials for U.S. pharmaceuticals were produced domestically, with 88% imported, showcasing a high dependency on global supply chains. [2] - China is a major player in the global raw material market, supplying about one-third of the world's raw materials, with exports growing from $23.6 billion in 2013 to $51.79 billion in 2022. [2] Competitive Advantages of Chinese Raw Materials - China's scale and lower labor costs provide a competitive edge in raw material production, making it difficult for the U.S. to replace this supply without incurring higher costs. [2][3] - The technological advancements and increased investment in research and development by Chinese companies enhance their competitiveness in the raw material sector. [4][5] Shift in Global Production - The global focus of raw material production is shifting from traditional Western countries to emerging markets like China and India, driven by cost advantages and technological improvements. [5][6] - The transition of production back to the U.S. is complex and time-consuming, with estimates suggesting it could take 10 to 15 years to rebuild the raw material industry. [6] Rise of China's Innovative Drug Industry - The article notes that while the U.S. FDA has approved a significant number of new drugs, Chinese companies are increasingly participating in global pharmaceutical supply chains through strategic collaborations. [8][9] - The CXO (Contract Research Organization) industry in China is growing, with a projected market share increase from 14.8% in 2024 to 19.5% by 2030, driven by the demand for cost-effective drug development services. [9][10] U.S. Drug Pricing Issues - The high cost of drugs in the U.S. is attributed to the lack of government intervention and the profit distribution among pharmaceutical companies, insurers, and other stakeholders. [15][16] - The article suggests that reducing drug prices in the U.S. may increase reliance on Chinese raw materials and innovative drug development services. [16][17] Strategic Responses to Trade Tensions - In light of potential trade conflicts, Chinese pharmaceutical companies are advised to focus on domestic market growth, innovation, and diversification into other markets, particularly in regions like ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America. [17]