为何M2增速跳升？——4月金融数据点评

Core Viewpoints - The sudden increase in M2 growth in April is primarily due to a rapid recovery of non-bank deposits, which is linked to effective macro policies responding to tariff shocks, leading to accelerated capital market recovery [3][8][46] - The credit landscape in April shows a pattern of "loan decline and bond financing recovery," with short-term loans decreasing due to previous surges, while medium to long-term loans saw a smaller increase, influenced by debt resolution progress and tariff shock impacting corporate expectations [12][20][46] Financial Data Summary - In April, the total new credit was 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion, mainly due to the corporate sector [26][49] - The total social financing (社融) increased by 1,159.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1,224.9 billion, with corporate bond financing showing signs of recovery [32][49] - M2 increased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year to 8.0%, while M1 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% [39][50] Resident and Corporate Credit Trends - Resident credit remained subdued, with a cautious debt attitude due to employment market pressures and tariff disturbances, reflected in the BCI enterprise hiring index remaining below 50 for two consecutive months [15][47] - The structure of social financing in April showed a dominance of government bonds and improvement in corporate bonds, with government bonds increasing by 10,666 billion year-on-year [20][48] Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and easing external shocks is expected to stabilize microeconomic expectations, with the central bank announcing ten specific measures to support capital markets, real estate, and the private economy [25][48] - The recent easing of US-China trade tensions is anticipated to further improve microeconomic expectations and stabilize corporate credit demand [25][48]