热点思考｜中国制造“难替代性”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent easing of US-China tariff tensions, drawing parallels to the previous tariff phase under the Trump administration, highlighting the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing [2]. Group 1: Underestimated Tariff Exemption Mechanism - The tariff exemption mechanism operates independently and is primarily initiated by US importers, not reliant on US-China negotiations [3][9]. - During the first tariff phase, the highest percentage of exempted goods reached 60%, with a total of 50 rounds of exemptions since 2018, amounting to a maximum of 118.3 billion [3][12]. - The current round of exemptions is progressing faster than the previous phase, with 26.5% of total US imports from China in 2024 already included in the exemption list [3][14]. Group 2: Reasons for Tariff Exemptions - Exempted products generally have a high dependency on Chinese imports, with rubber and plastics showing exemption rates of 62.9% and 62.2% respectively [4][19]. - Tariffs have led to increased industry costs, with a direct correlation observed between high tariff rates and significant increases in Producer Price Index (PPI) for affected industries [4][24]. - The exemptions also aim to alleviate supply-demand mismatches in the US industry, particularly in sectors where domestic competitiveness has declined [5][29]. Group 3: Assessing the "Irreplaceability" of Chinese Manufacturing - The article proposes a five-dimensional framework to evaluate the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, focusing on industries with strong supply chain ties to China [6][36]. - Industries such as machinery, rubber plastics, and electrical equipment are highlighted as having significant difficulty in decoupling from Chinese supply chains [6][38]. - The analysis identifies nine sectors with irreplaceable products, including computer communication electronics and rubber plastic manufacturing [6][36]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - Industries with high import price increases and low reductions in dependency on China, such as rubber plastics and chemical products, indicate a persistent irreplaceability [7][43]. - High markup industries, including electric vehicles and consumer electronics, maintain strong market competitiveness despite tariff pressures, with some products showing price premiums of 1.5 to 2.4 times in the US market [7][50]. - Industries reliant on Chinese supply chains, such as textiles and consumer electronics, exhibit lower cost rates compared to the manufacturing average, reinforcing their dependency on Chinese imports [7][53].