不容忽视的大趋势：稳定币--正在爆发的“数字美元霸权”

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are emerging as an unexpected ally in reinforcing the dominance of the US dollar amidst global de-dollarization discussions, with significant implications for international finance and payment systems [1][14]. Group 1: Growth and Adoption of Stablecoins - The total market size of stablecoins has surged from $20 billion in 2020 to an estimated $246 billion by May 2025, with Tether (USDT) alone growing from $67 billion in June 2022 to over $149 billion by May 2025 [7][19]. - Stablecoin transaction volume has increased by 598% since 2020, reaching $27.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing traditional payment giants like Visa and Mastercard [9][19]. - Active stablecoin wallet addresses grew from 22.8 million in February 2024 to over 35 million by February 2025, marking a 53% increase [9]. Group 2: Impact on Europe and Financial Stability - The widespread adoption of dollar-pegged stablecoins in Europe poses a threat to the European Central Bank's (ECB) control over monetary policy, as transactions may bypass the euro system, reducing the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments [2][3]. - Concerns arise regarding financial stability, as European businesses earning in euros but receiving payments in dollar stablecoins could face currency mismatch risks if the euro depreciates [2][3]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages of Dollar Stablecoins - Dollar-pegged stablecoins dominate the market, with 83% of stablecoins linked to the US dollar, while euro-pegged stablecoins hold a negligible market share, leading to higher transaction costs for euro stablecoins [5][16]. - The regulatory environment in the EU is stricter compared to the US, where there is more room for innovation and expansion due to the absence of comprehensive legislation [5][16]. - Dollar stablecoins have established a strong presence in early application scenarios, benefiting from network effects within the cryptocurrency trading ecosystem and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms [5][16]. Group 4: Strategic Asset and Political Support - Stablecoins are increasingly viewed as strategic assets, with Tether being one of the largest holders of US Treasury securities, indicating a shift in how these digital currencies are perceived [13][15]. - Political backing from figures like former President Trump and Republican lawmakers positions stablecoins as a private sector solution to digital currency, contrasting with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) [18][19]. Group 5: Future Projections - Standard Chartered forecasts that the supply of stablecoins could grow nearly tenfold from $230 billion to approximately $2 trillion by the end of 2028, significantly impacting foreign exchange market volumes [19].