调研报告 | 花生：预计辽宁新季种植面积企稳

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the peanut market in China for the 2024/2025 production season, highlighting the reasons for the prolonged stalemate in supply and demand, the impact of natural disasters on production, and the cautious mindset of farmers regarding planting decisions [1][2][4][12]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic demand for peanuts is weak, particularly in the food-grade segment, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude among various market participants. The total sales volume in key distribution areas has decreased by approximately 20% in the 80 days following the 2025 Spring Festival [1]. - The production cost has increased due to lower-than-expected yields, with the average cost of peanut production reaching around 3.0 CNY per jin, while the market price is hovering around 4.1 CNY per jin, providing a psychological support level for prices [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Inventory Pressure - Despite predictions of a peak in farmer sales, there has been no significant selling pressure observed in the market. Current inventory levels are manageable, with approximately 100,000 tons of peanuts in stock across Liaoning province, which is expected to last until August [4]. - The sentiment among farmers is cautious, with many holding back on selling due to the need to maintain prices above their production costs [4][12]. Planting Area and Cost Trends - The planting area for peanuts in traditional regions is expected to stabilize between 80% and 90%, while some peripheral areas may see a slight decrease from 70% to 60-65% [8]. - The average production cost for peanuts in Liaoning province has decreased by approximately 100 CNY per mu compared to the previous year, with seed prices dropping from 5.7-5.8 CNY per jin to around 5.1 CNY per jin [10][8]. Future Outlook - The planting pace for the upcoming season may be slower due to the cautious attitude of farmers, with potential delays in the new crop's market entry. The market may experience tight inventory levels during August and September, which could lead to a price increase above 4.5 CNY per jin [12][13]. - The impact of natural disasters on production is expected to limit the likelihood of significant selling pressure in the Liaoning market, with the focus shifting to the consumption rate of existing inventory and weather conditions affecting the upcoming crop [14].