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国泰海通|宏观:政府加杠杆,缓解企业压力——2025年4月社融数据点评
国泰海通证券研究·2025-05-15 14:33

Core Viewpoint - The financial data indicates that the policy side continues to exert efforts to stabilize growth, including accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds, while also highlighting that the recovery speed of domestic demand, particularly in the household sector, still needs to be boosted [1][4][17]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In April, new social financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the social financing stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024 [1][4]. - The increase in social financing was significantly influenced by a low base from the previous year, where new social financing in April 2022 was -65.8 billion yuan [4]. - New credit in April was 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate bill financing being the main support for credit in April, amounting to 834.1 billion yuan [8][10]. Group 2: Government Bonds and Fiscal Policy - From January to April, net financing of government bonds reached 4.85 trillion yuan, with April's net financing at 976.2 billion yuan, an increase of over 1 trillion yuan year-on-year [4]. - The Ministry of Finance initiated the issuance of special government bonds on April 24, with the issuance pace advanced by about one month compared to 2024, indicating ongoing support for stabilizing growth and domestic demand [4][17]. Group 3: Household Sector and Demand Recovery - In April, household loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan, indicating a need for improvement in the willingness of households to leverage [14]. - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year growth rate drop to -12%, reflecting a cooling in market activity and the need for recovery in household balance sheets [14][17]. Group 4: Monetary Supply - M2 growth rebounded to 8.0%, up 1 percentage point from March, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [17]. - The decline in M1 year-on-year was slight at 1.5%, indicating a mixed trend in monetary supply [17].