【昆仑能源（0135.HK）】依托中国石油平台优势，天然气终端业务高质量发展可期——首次覆盖报告（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Core Viewpoint - The company, a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation, is focused on natural gas terminal sales and is expected to see profit recovery and increased dividends in 2024, with a projected net profit of 6 billion yuan, representing a 4.9% year-on-year growth [2]. Group 1: Business Performance - The company's natural gas sales business has shown strong growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7% in revenue and 15.7% in pre-tax profit from 2016 to 2024 [3]. - The company has a significant presence in the mid-western city gas projects and is actively expanding its retail gas market, particularly in industrial gas, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.35% from 2018 to 2024 [3]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 0.47 yuan per cubic meter, a slight decrease of 0.03 yuan per cubic meter year-on-year, primarily due to structural impacts from adjustments in the gas station business [3]. Group 2: LNG Operations - The company operates two LNG receiving stations with a combined unloading capacity of 13 million tons per year, contributing a pre-tax profit of 3.577 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of 75% [4]. - The processing fee for LNG remains stable at 0.30 yuan per cubic meter, with unit pre-tax profit ranging between 0.21 to 0.22 yuan per cubic meter, providing a consistent revenue and profit source [4]. - The company is transitioning from upstream oil exploration to focus on natural gas terminal utilization, thereby reducing its cyclical attributes [4].