中金：推迟美联储降息预测至第四季度

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to significant tariff reductions, which have lowered the risk of a US economic recession. However, the effective tariff rate of 15.5% remains elevated compared to last year's 2.4%, indicating that inflation risks are not fully alleviated [1][4]. Economic Impact of Tariff Reductions - Following the tariff reductions, the effective tariff rate in the US is projected to decrease from 28.4% to 15.5%, significantly reducing recession risks. This reduction alleviates the pressure on import costs, restores consumer confidence, and lowers the risks of corporate layoffs and bankruptcies, thereby stabilizing overall economic demand [4]. - Despite the reduction, the retained 10% baseline tariff on most countries will continue to exert supply-side pressure, potentially leading to a 0.73 percentage point decline in the US GDP growth rate by 2025 compared to a scenario without tariffs. This impact is a significant improvement from the previously estimated 1.4 percentage point decline [4]. - The unemployment rate may rise by an additional 0.5 percentage points in 2025 due to the economic slowdown, although the increase may be less pronounced than in previous years due to a reduced influx of labor supply [4]. Inflation Risks - The increase in the effective tariff rate compared to last year, combined with the depreciation of the US dollar, continues to exert upward pressure on the prices of imported goods. The significant rise in tariff revenue in April indicates that businesses and consumers will still bear the cost of tariffs [6]. - Recent CPI data showed lower-than-expected inflation primarily due to a decline in service prices, but certain goods, such as entertainment products and appliances, have seen price increases. For instance, audio equipment prices rose by 8.8% [6][7]. - Historical patterns suggest that price increases typically occur 2-3 months after tariffs are fully implemented, indicating that the current inflation data may not yet reflect the full impact of the new tariffs [7]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is currently more focused on inflation risks rather than recession risks. The recent tariff reductions have lessened recession concerns but have not completely eliminated inflation risks, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [9]. - The Fed has postponed its interest rate cut predictions to the fourth quarter, with expectations of a reduction of less than 50 basis points for the year. This is a shift from earlier predictions of a more aggressive cut if tariffs remained high [9]. Potential Risks - There are two main risks to the current predictions: potential changes in tariff policies that could reignite recession fears and weak demand leading to lower oil prices and service inflation, which could offset the inflationary pressures from tariffs [10].