［5月15日］指数估值数据(红利指数上涨能持续吗；红利专题估值表更新；指数日报更新)

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the dividend index and its implications for investment strategies, highlighting the changes in dividend yields and the overall market conditions affecting these indices. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market experienced a decline, with large, mid, and small-cap stocks all falling, particularly small-cap stocks which saw a slightly larger drop [1][2][3]. - The value style saw a minor decline, while the growth style experienced a more significant drop [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market also faced a downturn, albeit with smaller declines compared to mainland markets [5]. Group 2: Dividend Index Analysis - The dividend index has shown significant growth over the past few years, with a notable performance from 2022 to 2024 [11]. - The China Securities Dividend Index rose from 1000 points in 2004 to 5581 points by the end of 2024, reflecting an annualized growth rate of approximately 8.9%, and with dividends included, it reached 11105 points, yielding an annualized rate of about 12.7% [12]. - The long-term growth rate for the dividend index is estimated at 8-9%, plus an annual dividend yield of 3-4% [15]. Group 3: Changes in Dividend Yield - Recent years have seen an increase in the dividend yield of the dividend index, with many stocks now offering yields of 5-6%, compared to 4-5% in previous years [16][18]. - Companies are increasingly encouraged to raise their dividend payout ratios, with some now distributing 40-50% of their profits as dividends, up from 30-40% [20]. - This increase in dividend payouts has led to a higher dividend yield but has also resulted in slower earnings growth for dividend stocks [22][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while the dividend index has performed well, the earnings growth rate is expected to slow down, with recent years showing growth rates of 5-6% and dividend yields of 4-5% [24]. - The article warns that if earnings growth for the dividend index declines again, it may lead to prolonged periods of undervaluation [29]. - The core drivers for the net asset value growth of dividend funds remain earnings growth and annual dividends, which have contributed significantly to recent returns [32][34]. Group 5: Fund Performance and Valuation - Some dividend funds have seen net asset value increases ranging from 50% to 80% in recent years, with earnings growth and dividends accounting for 70-80% of these returns [33][34]. - The current valuation of the dividend index is not as low as it was in 2020, indicating a return to normal valuation levels for some products [36]. - The article includes a valuation table for various dividend indices, providing insights into their earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend yield [39].