旅游行业｜四个角度探讨在线旅游平台（OTA）的超额回报

Core Viewpoint - The domestic online travel agency (OTA) industry is expected to benefit from the growth potential of tourism demand, with a forecast that tourism revenue growth will continue to exceed GDP growth by 2025, driven by policies such as travel subsidies that will release leisure travel demand [3]. Group 1: Tourism Demand and Online Penetration - The tourism demand in China is anticipated to enter a normalized development phase, with significant growth potential [3]. - The current recovery of outbound tourism is limited by flight supply, but related policies are expected to lead to breakthroughs in outbound tourism by 2025 [3]. - The OTA industry is positioned in the midstream of the tourism value chain, benefiting from a significant bilateral scale effect, and has been growing faster than the overall tourism market [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Business Contributions - Accommodation business is the core profit driver for OTA platforms, and their positioning in accommodation booking channels is crucial [4]. - The monetization rate for transportation services is significantly lower than that for hotel services due to the concentrated supply in transportation and higher profit margins in the accommodation sector [4]. - Short-term reliance on OTAs for traffic generation is essential for individual hotels and homestays, while the current hotel operation is at a cyclical low [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The previously concerning competitive landscape in the industry has significantly eased, with established players forming stable target customer groups and competitive advantages [5]. - The immediate nature of accommodation demand limits the ability of external platforms to penetrate the market through low-margin strategies [5]. - The trend towards direct sales channels by hotel chains is increasing, but the rise in leisure travel may moderate the pace of accommodation chain growth, providing a buffer against OTA impacts [4][5].