管涛：从本轮金融增量政策的市场反应说起

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial policies implemented in China, particularly the "5·07" incremental policy, which aims to stabilize the market and expectations amid external uncertainties and economic transitions. The response from the financial markets, especially the A-share market, has been more restrained compared to the previous "9·24" policy [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Policy Overview - On May 7, China announced a comprehensive set of financial policies to stabilize the market, which included a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy rates and a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio [4][9]. - The "5·07" policy is characterized by its broad scope, multiple measures, and rapid implementation, comparable to or exceeding the "9·24" policy [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the "9·24" policy, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant rally, gaining 27% over a two-week period. In contrast, the response to the "5·07" policy was more muted, with only a 2% increase over three trading days [4][6]. - The market's restrained reaction to the "5·07" policy is attributed to the fact that many of the measures were anticipated by investors [4][6]. Economic Context - The article highlights the ongoing economic challenges, including a decline in the GDP deflator index and a prolonged decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has raised concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy [9][10]. - The need for a balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system is emphasized, as low interest rates face constraints from insufficient market demand and bank credit supply [11][12]. Fiscal Policy Measures - The article outlines the government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in new government debt to support economic stability [13][15]. - Specific measures include enhancing financial support for foreign trade enterprises affected by tariffs and promoting domestic consumption [14][15]. Trade and External Relations - Despite challenges in exports to the U.S., overall Chinese exports have shown resilience, with significant growth in exports to non-U.S. markets [16]. - The article suggests that ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. may lead to a reduction in tariffs, which could further support economic stability [16].