国泰海通证券研究·2025-05-16 12:04Core Viewpoint - The accumulation of OCI floating profits in banks has largely been consumed, primarily due to passive consumption from a weak bond market rather than active selling by banks [1][2][3] Group 1: OCI Floating Profit Consumption - Most banks have consumed over half of their OCI floating profit accumulation, with some banks even turning to floating losses; large banks have a relatively smaller consumption ratio, around one-third [1] - Among the six major banks, only one has consumed about half of its floating profit accumulation, while the others have consumed approximately one-third [1] - Out of 33 listed banks with available data, 25 have consumed more than half of their floating profit accumulation, with 7 turning to floating losses [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Revenue - The low performance of bond market investments has significantly dragged down the revenue performance of listed banks, with non-interest income negatively impacting revenue growth by 3.81 percentage points for joint-stock banks and 6.42 percentage points for city commercial banks [1] - For rural commercial banks, the contribution from non-interest income dropped from 7.30 percentage points to 4.52 percentage points [1] Group 3: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The pressure on net interest margins (NIM) is primarily observed in large banks, with a notable narrowing in Q1 due to a "lack of liabilities" leading to a shift towards interbank certificates of deposit [3] - In Q1, the average NIM for large banks narrowed by 0.10 percentage points to a low of 1.39%, significantly weaker than seasonal trends [3] - The recovery trend for NIM is not stable, as interbank deposits saw a seasonal decline in March, although there was a notable rebound in April due to a more relaxed funding environment [3]