以史为鉴，中美关税调降后，金属市场走向何方？

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the US remains, with significant implications from the recent tariff policies that could lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners, negatively impacting both the US and global economic growth while potentially increasing inflation in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The current US GDP growth rate is stable at over 2%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a relatively healthy economy [19]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement 5-6 rate cuts by the end of 2025, although there is a possibility of accelerating these cuts to stimulate the economy [19]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent US tariff policies are more aggressive than previous rounds, raising concerns about their potential to cool down the global economy [2]. - Historical data shows that previous tariff increases have led to significant declines in both imports and exports, as seen during the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which resulted in a 66% drop in US imports from 1930 to 1933 [22]. Group 3: China Economic Performance - China's economy showed resilience in the first quarter, but the likelihood of a slowdown in the second quarter has increased, suggesting a cautious outlook for the year [3]. - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, indicating a stable but cautious economic strategy [26]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The performance of various metals since May indicates a mixed response to tariff announcements, with gold and silver prices declining by 3.9% and 1.3% respectively, while aluminum and tin saw increases of 1.7% and 1.8% [9]. - The volatility in the commodity market is expected to decrease in the second quarter, reflecting a more stable trading environment [31]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Industry Dynamics - Close attention is required on supply-side disruptions that could affect commodity pricing and availability [5]. - The influence of precious metals on the pricing dynamics of the non-ferrous sector is a critical area for monitoring [4].