Strategy - The article discusses the recent "triple kill" in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets following Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," which led to a significant market downturn, with the S&P 500 experiencing a maximum drawdown of 10% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 50 basis points to nearly 4.5% [3] - The concerns stem from the potential erosion of global investors' confidence in U.S. dollar assets as a long-term safe haven, alongside the immediate market volatility caused by policy uncertainty [3] - Historical instances of similar "triple kill" scenarios since 1970 are analyzed, identifying common triggers such as stagflation fears, monetary tightening, and reduced relative attractiveness of the dollar [3] Real Estate - The article highlights the evolving framework of China's real estate policies since 2022, emphasizing the need for dynamic responses to market challenges [9] - It suggests that enhancing asset circulation at both macro and micro levels could lead to a more balanced real estate market and effective risk mitigation [9] - The article advocates for synchronized policy deepening on both supply and demand sides, particularly enriching supply-side policy tools to improve industry supply-demand dynamics and asset price expectations [9] Macroeconomy - A joint statement from the U.S. and China indicates a significant reduction in tariffs, with the effective U.S. tariff rate dropping from 28.4% to 15.5%, which is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures in the U.S. and reduce export risks for China [11] - The outcome of the trade talks is seen as a positive development for market sentiment, with implications for both U.S. supply shocks and Chinese demand shocks [11] - The article notes that the future trajectory of China's economy will largely depend on the strength of macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal measures [11] Major Assets - The "triple kill" scenario in April is linked to significant changes in the inflation environment and the dollar cycle, indicating a decline in the safe-haven capacity of U.S. dollar assets [16] - The article warns of the potential for repeated and prolonged "triple kill" events, suggesting that the scarcity of safe assets like U.S. Treasuries may enhance the appeal of gold and other non-dollar assets [16] - It also points out that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. equities may increase the attractiveness of non-U.S. risk assets, particularly in Europe and China [16]
中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、大类资产、房地产