傅里叶的猫·2025-05-18 10:53Core Viewpoint - Citi believes that 2026 will be the year when 800G optical modules dominate the market, with a projected sales volume of 37 million units, representing an 85% year-on-year growth driven primarily by demand from overseas cloud service providers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to be robust, with over 90% of this demand coming from overseas cloud service providers (CSPs) [3]. - The deployment speed of 1.6T Ethernet switches may slow down, leading to a downward revision of demand forecasts for 1.6T modules [3]. - The market share distribution will be influenced by production capacity and delivery capabilities, with a preference for second-tier suppliers among overseas customers [3]. Group 2: Company Performance and Predictions - Citi's rating hierarchy for companies in the sector is as follows: Eoptolink > Innolight > T&S > TFC, with a particular focus on Eoptolink due to its strong performance in 800G/1.6T products and capacity [4]. - Eoptolink is expected to benefit significantly from the strong demand for 800G, with projections indicating that 75% of its sales will come from this segment by 2026 [15]. - Innolight is also anticipated to capture a substantial share of the 800G demand due to its superior supply capabilities and ongoing silicon photonics migration [17][18]. Group 3: Financial Forecasts and Market Trends - The 2025-2027 shipment forecasts for 400G, 800G, and 1.6T modules have been adjusted, reflecting an increase in 800G shipments and a decrease in 1.6T due to industry demand delays [17]. - The overall market valuation is expected to recover, with industry price-to-earnings ratios projected to rise from 8-10 times to 15-20 times by 2025, driven by cloud infrastructure upgrades and higher optical module integration rates [9]. - The anticipated strong demand for 800G and the potential delay in 1.6T migration may pose risks for CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) deployment, which could be pushed to 2027 [9]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with more second-tier suppliers entering the supply chain due to insufficient supply from first-tier suppliers [13]. - Companies like Suzhou Taicheng Light are facing challenges due to lower-than-expected InfiniBand penetration and weak GB200 rack numbers, which may impact their 1.6T demand [20][21]. - The ongoing silicon photonics migration is expected to provide cost advantages for companies like Innolight and Eoptolink, allowing them to maintain higher profit margins compared to competitors who rely on external design sources [18].