液冷产业相关介绍我们在前期文章反复提及，在此不过多赘述。本文章更多叙述2026年液 冷行业供需两侧逻辑/数据及国内厂商的出海机会展望。 千亿的液冷赛道 英伟达Rubin的液冷新方案？ GB200 GB300液冷价值量拆解 需求侧 1、随着单AI算力卡及机柜功耗越来越高，风冷无法满足相应算力卡及机柜的散热要求，必须要上液 冷方案才能解决相应散热问题。（单柜功耗＞35-40KW即无法上风冷） 2、北美缺电严重，液冷能显著降低PUE，大幅节约单位算力密度总能耗，缓解缺电导致的数据中心 项目推迟。（液冷方案PUE＜1.2），不要小看这一点点的降低，数据中心的电费是非常夸张的，这 也是为什么国内很多数据中心都建在内蒙古、新疆等地的原因。 3、北美不少数据中心项目离经济中心或居民区域相对较近，液冷相对风冷散热方案能显著降低数据 中心机房噪音，促使数据中心项目落地进程加快，减少资金垫付财务成本 目前英伟达GB200及以上更高级机柜系列方案全面运用液冷散热方案；谷歌的TPU V7 及以上更高级 机柜系列方案全面运用液冷散热方案（此前TPU V3有尝试运用液冷方案，但当下量不大）；Meta的 MTIA V2及以上更高级机柜系列 ...

以下文章来源于AI产业链研究 ，作者研究 AI产业链研究 . 围绕人工智能展开研究，涵盖基础设施、算法及应用等多个方面，同时也会分享研究过程中的一些心得 体会 大摩（Morgan Stanley）每月会提供各 ODM 厂商的月度及季度机架出货量预测，其于12月 8日发布最新报告。在主流 GPU AI 服务器 ODM 厂商中，大摩的优先排序为纬创 （Wistron）＞鸿海（Hon Hai）＞广达（Quanta）。 小摩（JP Morg an）也有类似的预测数 据，之前我们也写过 小摩2025年AI芯片市场预测：英伟达550万张，AMD 55万，ASIC 417万，国产芯片呢？ 大摩对 GB200/300 机架的最新预测为 2.73 万个，较此前的 2.8 万个小幅下调。这一调整主要源于广达 2025 年第三季度财报电话会议后，大摩更新了其 2025 年第四季度机架预测。 广达管理层表示，2025 年第四季度 AI 业务将实现环比增长，但 AI 营收增速有望在 2026 年第一季度加 快，这一表述较之大摩此前的预期更为保守。因此，大摩将广达 2025 年第四季度机架产量从此前的约 3500 个下调至 2500 个 ...

关于美国缺电和电力出海的话题，我们之前已经写过非常多了，也写了几篇文章专门分析过SST和HRSG的产业逻辑。 前两天比较大的两 件事就是英伟达即将举办的闭门会和甲骨文数据中心的delay，虽然后来甲骨文的人出来辟谣 ，但其实由于劳动力和电力的短缺， delay在所难免。 燃机 需求侧：北美电网设备老旧、电力体系割裂，电源端难以抵抗驾驭风光等间歇性能源装机持续新增的冲击，负荷侧艰难满足数据中心、新能源汽车、电 解铝厂等高用电要求。美国天然气便宜且气电供应持续、稳定、绿色，综合能源不可能同时兼得，天然气发电是北美最优的发电方式，进而燃机需求增 长在未来保障性高，根据产业调研及三大燃机大厂指引，预计2026-2030年，年燃机需求量平均将超80-110GW（此前指引平均在45-60GW），其中北美 地区为核心需求地。 供给侧：燃机生产工艺难且多，半数工序依赖有经验的工人，工人平均培训上岗周期至少在1-2年（在海外招足这类工人是非常艰难的事情）。与此同 时，燃机运用于终端中大型电力电站，贸易限制多，进出口可选项少。从而导致燃机供给格局优（主要由西门子能源、GEV、三菱重工主导）、扩产周 期长（平均2-3年以上），产能 ...

甲骨文的财报 2025年12月11日，Oracle发布了2026财年第二季度财报，股价在盘后一度暴跌14%，跌去约1050亿美 元市值，这是自2001年以来最大的单日跌幅。这一反应源于营收和利润率低于预期，下面这个表是 各大机构对oracle的评级和核心观点： | 机构名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | 目标价调整 | 当前股价 | 潜在涨跌空 | 核心观 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （USD） | 情况 | | 间 | 要 | | | | | | | | 认可 关订单 | | | | | | | | 长，但 | | | 持有 | | 暂不调整， | | | 订单转 | | 摩根士丹利 | （Equal | 320.00 | 处于评估中 | 223.01 | +43.49% | 率、利 | | | weight） | | | | | 承压及 | | | | | | | | 不确定 风险与 | | | | | | | | 平衡 | | | | | | | | 看好长 | | | | | | | | 基础设 | | 花旗 | 买入 | 370 ...

昨天在川普宣布H200要放开后，我们这边其实也在积极准备，今天晚上Information和路透相继都报 道了这个消息。 总结一下两 个新闻的内容就是目前 正在开会讨论，在争取大厂们的看法。 当然我也问到一些信息，比如配额，目前B系列在国内的情况，还有H200的库存信息，这些信息比 较敏感，都放到星球中了。 关于上面这两个新闻，我们想说的有三点。 1、中国关系的稳中向好 这是大家都愿意看到的，从前段时间的各种"冲突"中，现在逐渐开始恢复，在川普宣布放开后，我 们这边也没有直接拒绝，而是在跟CSP大厂们开会讨论，这都是稳中向好的迹象。前几天还有个消 息大家可能没有关注到： 说明双方目前都是在积极的对话，合作才能共赢。 这对于出海链上的企业们是非常利好的，依旧看好NV/谷歌链上的各家公司。 2、国内AI赛道的"三雄争霸"格局 根据前面的两个新闻，目前找的科技巨头，也是国内在AI方向，最激进而且影响力最大的公司：字 节、阿里和腾讯。 在北美，谷歌是AI链上的六边形战士，有芯片、有模型、有云、有数据，账上还有大量的资金。在 国内目前能做到这一点的，只有阿里。 字节：靠流量破局 其实要说国内在AI这块最激进的公司，肯定是 ...

关于H200的放开问题，前段时间就已经在讨论了，当时也写了一篇分析： 英伟达H200如果放开，中国会接受吗？ 这篇文章，以 NV服务器分销商的身份，再来 理性分析一下。 1、美国放开的原因 大家都知道，老黄一直在努力劝说美国政府，放开H200，主要原因是清库存。 英伟达H200库存主要集中在NV和代工模组厂商，而上游台系ODM厂库存极低，且因超微被美国商 务部调查导致供货受限，整体供应链提货能力不足。老黄急于清理库存，而美国那边，现在市场上 的主流产品已经是B系列了，无论是GB200，还是8卡机B200/B300，想靠美国市场消化掉这些H200 是比较难的，还是要靠中国市场。 我们前段时间一直在提美国缺电的问题，这是目前美国数据中心最大的问题。美国数据中心仍在扩 建，但电力供应紧张，Blackwell架构相比H100/H200更省电并支持液冷，能效比更高，未来 H100/H200将逐步下架。这些旧型号设备若无法在美国内部消化，最理想的处理方式依然是合法卖给 中国，实现库存转移。 2、中国的态度 其实就H200放开的这个消息，网上大家的看法有明显的两级分化的现象。 一方面认为国产AI芯片性能目前还达不到H200 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the logic and marginal changes of AI computing hardware going overseas, highlighting that the market is currently performing well, particularly in AI computing-related sectors [1] - The power export market has shifted from SST to gas turbines and HRSG recently, indicating a change in focus within the industry [3][4] - The article emphasizes the strong performance of core targets in the gas turbine market, suggesting a positive outlook for these companies [4] Group 2 - The article notes that only three companies—Siemens Energy, GE, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries—are currently capable of producing gas turbines, with a significant demand for these products due to electricity shortages in the U.S. [5] - Gas turbines are highlighted for their flexibility and efficiency, with the cost of electricity generation from large gas turbines being only $70-80 per megawatt hour, which remains competitive even with price increases [6][7] - The gas turbine market is entering a golden period of supply-demand balance, with strong demand driven by electrification, energy security needs, and explosive growth in data centers. Global gas turbine orders are expected to exceed production capacity until at least the early 2030s [7] Group 3 - HRSG prices are currently between $5-5.5 million per unit, with expectations to rise to $6-7 million per unit by early next year, driven by a 50% supply-demand gap [7] - The article provides insights into various companies in the domestic Google supply chain, detailing their products, market shares, and expected orders for 2026 [10][11]

Group 1: Optical Modules - The optical module industry is experiencing the highest growth and performance realization among AI hardware this year, driven by high verification barriers for North American CSP tech giants and increasing demand due to the acceleration of supernode technology [2][4] - The average ratio of optical modules to GPUs is continuously increasing, with demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules being revised upwards, indicating a strong upward resonance in demand [2][4] - By 2026, the demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to exceed 30 million units, with an average price of $900-1000 per unit, while high-end EML optical chips are projected to face a 25-30% supply shortage [4][5] Group 2: Liquid Cooling - The liquid cooling industry has seen fluctuating trends this year, with initial enthusiasm dampened by low penetration rates, followed by a resurgence in August and significant breakthroughs in November [5][9] - The demand for liquid cooling in North America is expected to expand rapidly by 2026, with penetration rates in the NVIDIA ecosystem projected to rise from 20-30% to over 80-90% [7][9] - A leading domestic manufacturer is anticipated to capture a market share of 13-17% in North America by 2026, with Google expected to implement liquid cooling solutions for over 200,000 TPU V7 chips, creating a market space exceeding $24-28 billion [9][10] Group 3: AI PCB - The AI PCB industry is thriving, with companies like Shenghong, Huidian, and Shengyi achieving performance realization in North America, despite some quarterly fluctuations [10][12] - The supply side is seeing an increase in product value and manufacturing difficulty due to upgrades in customer chips and cabinet solutions, leading to a marginal differentiation in the supply landscape [10][12] - By 2026, the introduction of orthogonal backplanes is expected to significantly increase unit value, with M9 material processing anticipated to break through, although mass production is expected to ramp up in 2027 [12][13] Group 4: Server Power Supply - The server power supply market has shown similar trends to liquid cooling, with initial excitement followed by a divergence in performance among manufacturers [13][14] - The supply side is dominated by Taiwanese manufacturers, with a high concentration of market share, while domestic manufacturers are expected to make significant breakthroughs in North America by 2026 [14][15] - The adoption of HVDC technology is projected to replace traditional UPS solutions, with an expected market scale exceeding $20-30 billion by 2026 [15]

12/5/2025 AWS Trainium3 Deep Dive | A Potential Challenger Approaching NL72×2/NL32×2 Scale Up Rack Architecture, Step-Function Software & System ·公众号· More Than Semi Improvements, Optimized Perf per TCO, "Amazon ... AWS Trainium3: 优化性价比（Perf per TCO）与运营灵活性 核心理念:性价比与灵活性 运营玩 元 最大将性价比 (Perf per TCO) 多源组件供应商 定制芯片合作伙伴 供应链管理 最低 TCO 最快上市时间 硬件北极星指标 避免单一架构承诺,以实现最大适应性。 系统与网络:"Amazon Basics"方法 设计选择 "Amazon Basics" 方法 优化目标 → 带宽扩展交换机 > (12.8T / 25.6T / 51.2T) 为特定客户和数据中心 实现最佳 TCO 的手段, 提供最佳 TCO 而非固定标准。 冷却方式 (液冷 vs 风冷) 纵向扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth and investment opportunities in the gas turbine and HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) sectors, particularly focusing on Siemens Energy and its market dynamics driven by increasing electricity demand and structural changes in the energy sector [1][3]. Group 1: Gas Turbine Market Dynamics - The core challenge in gas turbine production lies in the main engine, which must withstand high temperatures and pressures, with only Siemens Energy, GE, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries capable of manufacturing them [3]. - Siemens Energy has a backlog of orders totaling €138 billion, a 42% increase from 2022, with €65 billion coming from service-related orders, indicating strong demand in the gas services and grid technology sectors [3]. - Global electricity demand is expected to grow nearly 50% over the next decade, with AI and data centers projected to double their electricity consumption in the same period [3]. Group 2: Growth in Gas Services - The gas services segment is identified as the primary growth driver for Siemens Energy, as gas-fired power generation emits half the carbon of coal, making it a viable alternative [4]. - From 2025 to 2035, the global annual increase in gas-fired power generation capacity is expected to reach 90-100 GW, nearly double the average of the past decades, with data centers contributing 15%-20% to this demand [4]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Market Demand - Siemens Energy is accelerating capacity expansion, with plans to increase large gas turbine production in Berlin from 35 units per year to 50 by 2027, and to double the medium gas turbine capacity in Sweden to 100 units by 2028 [5]. - The current production capacity is fully booked, with a delivery cycle of 2-3 years, highlighting a tight market supply situation [5]. - Siemens Energy has achieved a 100% attachment rate for long-term service agreements for large gas turbines, with profit margins on new agreements expected to increase by over 500 basis points compared to existing contracts [5]. Group 4: Domestic HRSG Companies' Outlook - The outlook for domestic HRSG companies in international markets appears optimistic, with BYTH's Vietnam project planning four HRSG production lines in phase one and eight in phase two, targeting North American gas turbine contractors [7]. - HRSG units account for only 7-8% of value but represent 30-40% of power generation capacity, with expectations of price increases exceeding 30-40% due to a 50% supply-demand gap [7]. - Xizi Clean Energy has established a strong position in the global high-end HRSG market through successful projects in Pakistan and Nigeria, with products exported to over 50 countries [7].