【策略周报】关税超预期调降，资金为何转向防御？

Key Points - The article discusses the recent developments in China-US trade relations, highlighting the joint statement from the Geneva economic talks on May 12, 2025, where both countries agreed to modify tariffs on each other's goods [2] - The US will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the first 90 days and retain a 10% tariff, while China will similarly adjust its tariffs on US goods [2] - On May 14, the US reduced the tariff on small packages from China, lowering the international mail tax rate from 120% to 54% [2] - The US consumer price index (CPI) for April 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, slightly down from 2.4% in March, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - In April 2025, new RMB loans in China amounted to 280 billion, a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year, while the total social financing scale was 1,158.5 billion, an increase of 1,224.3 billion year-on-year [3] - The broad money supply (M2) in China grew by 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The bond market faced downward pressure following the "double reduction" policy, with short-term bonds strengthening while long-term bonds showed weakness due to profit-taking [4] - The overall bond market was under pressure after the joint statement from the China-US economic talks, leading to a slight widening of the yield spread [4]