分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 (1.26-1.30) 02 周度行情回顾 债市修复 债市延续修复。权益市场震荡偏弱，债市情绪延续改善，周初长债收益率再度向下，多地 地方政府GDP目标与去年全国增速（5%）持平或略有下调，显示出不追求强刺 ... 报告正文共计3251字 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 1、1月27日，统计局公布数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 73982.0亿元，比上年增长0.6%。12月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长5.3%。 2、当地时间1月28日，美联储公布货币政策委员会FOMC的会议决定：将联邦基金利 率的目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。本次美联储声明删除了就业风险增加的说 辞，指出经济形势有改善、尤其在失业率上升方面已有企稳迹象，暗示联储决策者更 谨慎，并不急于继续行动。 3、当地时间1月29日，美国总统特朗普在肯尼迪中心对媒体表示，在紧张局势不断升 级之际，他已与伊朗方面进行接触，并计划继续展开对话，同时再次以军事行动相威 胁，敦促伊朗接受协议条件。 4、1月30日，特朗普总统宣 ...

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 监管和行业动态： 1、银行理财2025年报出炉：截至2025年末，银行理财市场存续规模达33.29 万亿元，较年初增长11.15%，全年增量3.34万亿元。产品结构呈现"现金管理类收缩、固收类主 导、混合类扩容"的鲜明特征。资产配置方面，重点增配公募基金、现金及银行存款，减配信用 债和同业存单。 收益率表现： 上周（2026.1.19-2026.1.25，下同）现金管理类产品近7日年化收益率录得 1.27%，环比下降1BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.16%，环比基本持平。 上周各期 限纯固收、固收+产品收益多数上升。 央行大规模超额续作MLF，且明确降准降息仍有空间， 政策端呵护姿态持续凸显；监管主动引导下权益市场出现回调，加之国债发行结果向好，市场 对年初供给压力的担忧有所缓释，多重因素共振推动债市情绪延续回暖态势。全周来看，10年 国债活跃券收益率较上周下行1BP至1.83%，30年国债活跃券收益率较上周下行6BP至2.25%。 破净率跟踪： 上周银行理财产品破净率0.55% ...

1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 ETF网格策略 ETF网格策略重点关注标的 金融科技ETF (159851.SZ) (1) "十五五"规划再提"加快建设金融强国" 旨在通过大力发展"科技金融""数字金融"等五 篇大文章,持续深化资本市场改革,提高资本市场 制度包容性与适应性。另一方面，近年以生成式 AI、区块链为代表的前沿技术正加速进入规模化应 用阶段，推动金融行业的数智化转型从"可选项" 转变为"必答题"。部分领先的金融机构及IT厂商 已将AI等技术逐步嵌入客户营销、智能客服、内部 风控等应用场景,实现金融与科技交叉融合,有望 成为金融行业降本增效与模式创新的关键力量,重 塑金融行业生态并为其开辟全新增长曲线。该ETF 跟踪中证金融科技主题指数,覆盖金融IT、互联网 金融等核心赛道,为投资者提供了一键布局"金融 +科技"交叉领域创新红利的高效工具。 金融科技ETF (159851.SZ) 025082 026012 025082 02508 02508 TF买入持有累计收益率(%) 图 1: 金融 ...

Key Points - The article discusses the recent performance of the equity market, highlighting a significant divergence in market trends due to regulatory policies and liquidity conditions. Major sectors like consumption, pharmaceuticals, and finance saw declines, while growth sectors, particularly commercial aerospace, gained attention after adjustments [3][7][9] - The earnings season is beginning, and the market may shift towards profit recovery and valuation repair. The ongoing anti-involution policies are leading to negative investment growth across various industries, indicating future supply contraction, while demand stabilizes under fiscal stimulus and economic recovery, benefiting leading companies in sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [3][9] - The bond market experienced a rise in short-term yields and a decline in long-term yields, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 3.95 basis points to 1.28%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields decreased by 1.26 and 1.65 basis points, respectively. This shift is attributed to a "cooling" stock market prompting funds to seek refuge in bonds [4][10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, maintaining consistency with previous drafts and introducing specific adjustments regarding benchmark changes and reporting requirements [12] Equity Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices fell by 0.62% and 0.34%, respectively. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 27.972 trillion yuan, indicating a reduction in market activity [7] - ETF funds experienced a net outflow, with the CSI 300 ETF seeing a reduction of 49.603 billion units. Other ETFs also faced significant outflows, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment and the effectiveness of regulatory measures aimed at attracting long-term capital [7][8] Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a narrowing of yield spreads, with the short-term funding environment remaining favorable. The People's Bank of China indicated potential for further monetary easing, which could support market sentiment [4][10] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The recent release of performance benchmark guidelines for public funds aims to standardize evaluation criteria and ensure consistency in fund management practices, reflecting a regulatory push towards greater transparency and accountability in the fund industry [12]

分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 1、初步核算，2025年，我国国内生产总值（GDP）首次突破140万亿元，达到 1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。四季度，我国GDP为387911亿 元，按不变价格计算，同比增长4.5%。中国12月规模以上工业增加值同比增5.9%，1- 11月同比4.8%；中国1—12月份固定资产投资同比下降3.8%，1-11月同比下降2.6%； 中国12月社会消费品零售总额同比增0.9%，1-11月同比1.3%。 4、1月21日，美国总统特朗普周三突然收回以关税作为夺取格陵兰筹码的威胁，并排除 了动武的可能性，他表示，一项结束这一丹麦领土争端的协议即将达成。1月22日特朗 普表示，他已与北约达成一项协议，确保美国对格陵兰岛拥有全面且永久性的准入。 5、1月20日，财政部等三部门发布《关于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策有关事项 的通知》，将个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施期限延长至2026年底，调整后，个人消费 贷款财政贴息政策实施期为2025年9月1日至2026年12月31 ...

分析师：李亭函 登记编号：S0890519080001 分析师：张帅 登记编号：S0890524080001 研究助理：张君睿 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2026.01.12-2026.01.16 A股冲高回落，受政策指导，市场适时降温整固。根据我们宏观策略团队最新一期策略周报观点， 市场在指导下回归理性，短线题材有所调整。中长期视角下，市场整固后更益于慢牛上行，高景 气板块具备投资价值。短期内或许面临一定波动，仍建议优选景气度向上的行业待权重抛压减弱 后继续布局。 权益市场方面， 大小盘风格保持偏向小盘，价值成长风格保持偏向成长，趋势方向不变；市场风 格波动方面，大小盘风格波动和价值成长风格波动水平均上升至近一年高点，风格间收益差的波 动有所放大；市场结构方面，行业超额收益离散度出现反弹上升，行业轮动速度则继续在低位下 降，成分股上涨比例方面300和500出现明显下滑；交易集中度方面，前100个股成交额基本持平， 前5行业成交额占比小幅上升；市场活跃度方面，市场波动率除1000外均呈下降，而市场换手率保 持上升趋势。 商品市场方面， 能化板块和贵金属板块趋势强度上升，其他板块趋势强度有所下降；基差动量方 面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising to around 4200 points, but signs of overheating are evident in the overall market and certain sectors [3] - The market is experiencing resistance due to factors such as a "slow bull" tone, control over speculative trading, and significant outflows from broad-based funds, leading to a slight decline of -0.45% in the Shanghai Composite Index [3] Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market is expected to present investment opportunities despite short-term cooling, which is more about controlling the pace of upward movement rather than a change in market direction [4] - The overseas market is facing increased uncertainty due to geopolitical issues, U.S. economic data, and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is suppressing overall market performance during the U.S. earnings season [3][4] Group 2: Fund Strategy Performance - The Changqing Low Volatility Fund Strategy Index recorded a weekly return of 0.281% and a monthly return of 2.503%, while the Stock Enhancement Fund Strategy Index achieved a weekly return of 0.694% and a monthly return of 6.142% [5][10] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy Index outperformed the benchmark with a weekly return of 0.027%, accumulating a total excess return of 0.580% since its strategy inception [6][10] Group 3: Fund Strategy Insights - The Changqing Low Volatility Fund has maintained low volatility characteristics, significantly outperforming the benchmark in terms of both volatility and maximum drawdown, while achieving notable returns [11] - The Stock Enhancement Fund strategy aims to identify funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, showing potential for better performance as market conditions improve [13] - The Cash Growth Fund strategy has consistently outperformed its benchmark since its inception, providing effective cash management solutions for investors [14] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund has accumulated high excess returns since its strategy launch, benefiting from the global technology sector's momentum driven by AI [15] Group 4: Fund Selection Methodology - The report emphasizes the need for a quantitative approach to fund selection, adapting to changing market conditions and investor risk preferences [21] - The methodology includes constructing a low-volatility fund portfolio to meet defensive needs in high-risk environments while ensuring stable returns [23] - The report also outlines a selection system for money market funds to optimize short-term idle fund returns while minimizing risk [26] - For overseas investments, the report suggests a strategy based on momentum and reversal factors to select suitable QDII funds for global asset allocation [27]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - A new wave of fee reductions in the banking wealth management sector occurred from late December 2025 to early January 2026, with institutions like China Merchants Bank Wealth Management and others lowering management and service fees, some to as low as 0.01% per year or entering a "zero fee" range [7][8] - The fee reduction trend is driven by three main factors: the need to enhance product attractiveness during the key marketing period at the beginning of the year, the declining deposit rates highlighting the yield advantage of wealth management products, and intensified competition leading to fee reductions as a direct competitive strategy [7][8] - The sustainability of ultra-low fee models is questioned, as they may erode the profitability of wealth management firms, particularly smaller institutions, and could lead to a shift in investor focus towards product strategy and risk-return characteristics rather than just pricing [8] Innovation in the Industry - China Merchants Bank Wealth Management launched a new product called "HeTai Weekly Open 1," featuring a "micro-wave fixed income+" strategy and an innovative "weekly open holding period" model, with a 10 basis point management fee discount for the first three months to attract investors [9][10] - Postal Savings Bank of China participated as an anchor investor in the Hong Kong IPOs of domestic GPU company Biren Technology and AI company MiniMax, marking a strategic investment in AI computing infrastructure and algorithm applications [11] Yield Performance - For the week of January 12-18, 2026, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.26%, down 4 basis points, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.16%, down 2 basis points, with the yield spread between the two narrowing to 0.10% [13][14] - Most yields for pure fixed-income products increased, while yields for fixed-income plus products generally decreased during the same period [14] - The bond market sentiment improved due to various factors, including a rebound in the equity market and structural interest rate cuts by the central bank, with the yield on 10-year government bonds falling by 4 basis points to 1.84% [16] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 0.82%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points, with credit spreads also tightening by 0.13 basis points [20] - The relationship between net value ratios and credit spreads is generally positive, with significant changes in credit spreads potentially leading to upward pressure on net value ratios [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in various ETFs, particularly focusing on the Hong Kong stock market and sectors such as pharmaceuticals, entertainment, and finance, driven by favorable economic conditions and government policies [3][4][5][8][11]. Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market ETFs - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712.SZ) is expected to see a net buy of 1,404.84 billion HKD from southbound funds in 2025, a 73.89% increase from 2024, indicating strong inflows into the Hong Kong market [3]. - This ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index, covering over 57% of the market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks, balancing traditional and new economy sectors [4]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector ETFs - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892.SZ) is positioned to benefit from lower financing costs for pharmaceutical companies due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing their R&D capabilities [5]. - China holds approximately 30% of the global new drug pipeline, with 76 innovative drugs approved in 2025, indicating a robust domestic pharmaceutical industry [5]. Group 3: Entertainment Sector ETFs - The Film and Television ETF (159855.SZ) is anticipated to gain from the upcoming Spring Festival, which may boost market expectations and lead to a short-term rally in the sector [8]. - Government initiatives, such as the "China Film Consumption Year," aim to stimulate cultural consumption, potentially increasing audience engagement and spending in the film industry [8]. Group 4: Financial Sector ETFs - The Securities and Insurance ETF (512070.SH) is expected to benefit from active market trading, with a record turnover of 3.12 trillion RMB on January 9, 2026, positively impacting brokerage and margin financing businesses [11]. - Recent regulatory changes are likely to enhance capital efficiency for leading brokerages and relax investment restrictions for insurance companies, further supporting growth in the financial sector [11].

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The market has significantly cooled down since January 14, 2026, due to intensive regulatory policies, including raising margin requirements for margin trading and stabilizing large ETF holdings, leading to a decrease in total market turnover from around 4 trillion to approximately 3 trillion [1][7]. - The adjustment of margin requirements and the increase in broad-based ETF volumes are seen as precise expectation management by regulators to control leverage risks and guide market rhythm, which may cause short-term volatility but is beneficial for the long-term healthy operation of the market [1][7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a need for adjustment after consecutive gains, and the "cooling" policy signals suggest a high probability of the market entering a consolidation phase, with high-flying thematic stocks facing adjustment pressure [1][7]. - Upcoming economic data will further confirm whether fiscal measures are being fully implemented, with funds expected to shift from pure thematic speculation to areas supported by performance and clearer logic [1][8]. Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - During the week of January 12-16, 2026, bond yields generally declined, with the 1-year government bond yield down by 4.63 basis points to 1.24%, and the 10-year yield down by 3.58 basis points to 1.84%, while the 30-year yield slightly increased by 0.12 basis points to 2.30% [2][9]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market has improved, but further downward space for yields remains limited. The central bank announced its first structural "rate cut" of the year, lowering the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25%, exceeding market expectations [2][9]. - Despite the positive sentiment, it is important to note that this is not a comprehensive rate cut, and supply pressures in the bond market during the first quarter may still pose challenges [2][9]. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On January 15, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a system work meeting to summarize 2025's work and plan for 2026, emphasizing the need to deepen public fund reforms and broaden long-term funding sources [2][11]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of promoting long-term, rational, and value investments to create a market ecosystem conducive to "long money and long investment" [2][11]. - Regulatory enforcement will focus on enhancing effectiveness and deterrence, with a commitment to cracking down on financial fraud, price manipulation, and insider trading [2][11].