分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 分析师：周佳卉 同业创新动态： 港股IPO重返全球募资首位，工银理财积极创设"固收+港股IPO打新"策略产 品。处于募集期的工银理财智悦私银尊享目标止盈策略固收封闭产品(25G6723B)以高等级信用 债打底，运用20%以内仓位参与港股IPO项目、5%以内仓位适当参与以套期保值和风险对冲为 目的的金融衍生品交易，综合运用多策略进行组合管理；同时，设置"目标止盈"机制，如达到止 盈条件为客户提前锁定收益，落袋为安。 收益率表现： 上周（2025/7/21-2025/7/27，下同）现金管理类产品近7日年化收益率录得 1.35%，环比下行2BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.21%，环比下行1BP。现金管理 类产品与货币基金的收益差基本环比持平。上周各期限纯固收、固收+产品年化收益率均呈普遍 下降趋势。"反内卷"政策叠加雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程相关消息，再度推升市场通胀预期，权益 资产表现亮眼，股债跷跷板效应持续强化。在此背景下，债基遭遇赎回，利率债收益率显著上 行，10年国债收益率较前一周上行7BP至1.73%；信用利差亦明显走扩，阶段性终结 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment remains strong, focusing on "rotation and supplementary gains," with growth expected to follow the cyclical trends. Market transactions have further increased, and the sentiment is still heated, making it easier for indices to rise while the downside risk is limited [2][4] - The market rotation characteristics have continued, shifting from a "barbell contraction" to an "expansion," although chasing gains remains challenging. It is recommended to reduce operations and select relatively low-position thematic directions for layout and holding, waiting for opportunities for "rotation and supplementary gains" [2][4] Stock Market Factors - In the past week, the small-cap growth style outperformed, while the volatility of large and small-cap styles remained at a near one-year low. The volatility of value and growth styles has increased [6] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices remained at a near one-year low, with the speed of industry rotation oscillating upward and the proportion of rising constituent stocks increasing. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries has slightly decreased [6] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of the precious metals sector remains at a near one-year high, while the trend strength of the black sector has rapidly increased. The basis momentum of the precious metals sector is rising, while other sectors show oscillating downward trends [15] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility levels of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 have shown an upward trend, with the skew of call options maintaining previous levels while the skew of put options has significantly decreased. The market is generally optimistic due to policy-driven and sentiment-driven factors [21] Convertible Bond Market Factors - In the convertible bond market, the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan remains resilient, continuing to rise slightly, with less than 10 basis points difference from the peak in May. The proportion of low premium rate convertible bonds has shown signs of weakening, especially those below 5%, while the trading volume in the convertible bond market has increased alongside the heat in the equity market [26]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share equity market continues its strong performance, with multiple key levels being broken through, maintaining strong upward momentum driven by various favorable factors [2][3] - The US equity market shows a slowdown in its high-level growth, but remains in a fluctuating upward trend due to recent tariff negotiations [2][4] - The enhanced equity strategy index has shown relative strength, consistently breaking previous highs and recording higher elasticity in an upward market environment [2][3] A-share Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached resistance near 3600 points, with limited pullback and strong support [2] - The technology growth sector, which performed relatively weakly in May and June, has recently gained more market attention, indicating a shift in capital towards lower-priced sectors [3] - Defensive sectors like dividends and low volatility are expected to undergo short-term adjustments, presenting potential opportunities for positioning after price corrections [3] Overseas Market Dynamics - Recent tariff negotiations have led to a rapid recovery in the US and other markets, with some economic data exceeding expectations, alleviating previous inflation concerns [4] - Despite initial successes in tariff negotiations, there remains uncertainty in related policies, and the risk of overly optimistic pricing in the short term should be noted [4] - The long-term outlook for the US stock market remains positive, driven by strong technological development trends, although current high valuations may present lower cost-effectiveness for new investments [4][6] Fund Strategy Performance - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy recorded a weekly return of 1.990%, with a cumulative return of 14.953% since its inception [11][12] - The Enhanced Equity Fund Strategy achieved a weekly return of 2.284%, indicating strong performance in a rapidly rotating and volatile market [5][6] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy outperformed the benchmark with a weekly return of 0.028%, accumulating a total excess return of 0.457% since its inception [6][15] Fund Strategy Insights - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund aims to maintain low volatility while achieving stable returns, showing significant outperformance compared to the benchmark [12][22] - The Enhanced Equity Fund focuses on identifying funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, aiming for superior performance in improving market conditions [13][23] - The Cash Growth Fund is designed to optimize cash management for investors, ensuring higher returns while minimizing volatility risks [15][24] Global Investment Strategy - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund has accumulated high levels of excess returns since its inception, benefiting from the global technology sector's growth [17][25] - The strategy emphasizes selecting indices with strong upward momentum for global diversification, enhancing overall portfolio returns [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and strategies of ETF and index products, highlighting their market trends and investment opportunities [4]. Group 1: ETF and Index Products Performance - The report provides insights into the recent performance of various ETF and index products, indicating a significant increase in trading volume and investor interest [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of grid strategies in optimizing investment returns, particularly in volatile market conditions [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The analysis identifies key market trends affecting ETF and index products, including shifts in investor sentiment and regulatory changes [4]. - It notes that the overall market environment remains challenging, yet presents unique opportunities for strategic investments [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in A-share trading activity and a strong performance in cyclical stocks driven by demand expectations and policies aimed at improving domestic consumption [2][17] - The active public fund's second-quarter report indicates a shift in investment strategies focusing on sectors with recovery potential, particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals, while reducing exposure to consumer goods and automotive sectors [18][19] - The "anti-involution" theme is identified as a key driver of market sentiment, with expectations of supply-side adjustments in traditional cyclical industries, although the actual implementation remains uncertain [19] Group 2 - The technology sector is experiencing a resurgence, with advancements in generative AI and significant participation in the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, indicating ongoing growth potential in AI applications and semiconductor industries [20] - The approval of a second batch of 12 new floating-rate funds reflects a diversification in investment products, including themes related to manufacturing and high-end equipment, with differentiated fee structures aimed at performance incentives [21] - The performance of various equity fund indices shows positive trends, with the growth stock index leading with a year-to-date return of 24.97%, while the medical stock index has also performed well despite a recent decline [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50]

Market Review - The bond market experienced fluctuations with rising yields during the week of July 21-25, 2025. The China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) fell by 0.39%, while the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) decreased by 0.44%. Yields on government bonds across various maturities rose, with the 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields increasing by 3.38bp, 6.64bp, 9.14bp, and 7.07bp respectively [12][13] - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 109.5 billion yuan, with a total of 21.563 trillion yuan injected and 20.468 trillion yuan withdrawn. The overall liquidity was balanced, with DR007 and R007 rising by 14.56bp and 18.65bp to 1.65% and 1.59% respectively [13] - The U.S. Treasury market showed limited volatility, with a flattening yield curve. Initial jobless claims data unexpectedly declined, reinforcing a strong labor market view and reducing recent rate cut expectations [14] Public Fund Market Dynamics - As of July 25, 2025, the total scale of bond ETF products in the market surpassed 500 billion yuan, reaching 510.505 billion yuan, a nearly 200% increase since the beginning of the year. The Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF has become a core growth driver, with the first batch of 10 products launched after the Lujiazui Forum in June, achieving over 100 billion yuan in the first week [16][17] - The bond ETF market features a diverse range of products, with significant growth in various categories. For instance, the Pengyang 30-Year Treasury ETF exceeded 20 billion yuan, and the Bosera CSI Convertible Bond ETF surpassed 40 billion yuan [17] - The bond ETF market's growth indicates a deep integration of finance and technology, with ongoing product innovation and an optimized investor structure expected to inject sustained momentum into the high-quality development of China's capital market [17] Performance Tracking of Fixed Income Funds - Short-term bond fund index fell by 0.08% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.00% since inception [19] - Medium to long-term bond fund index decreased by 0.30%, with a cumulative return of 6.32% since inception [19] - Convertible bond fund index rose by 2.24%, achieving a cumulative return of 15.09% since inception [19]

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the ongoing recovery and improvement in the A-share market, driven by increased trading activity and positive sentiment, while also noting the tightening liquidity in the bond market and the potential impact on monetary policy expectations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Important Events Review - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a mid-year work meeting on July 24, 2025, emphasizing the need to consolidate market stability, deepen reforms, and enhance regulatory effectiveness to better serve national strategies [1]. - On the same day, President Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen, discussing strategic issues in China-Europe relations and international hot topics [1]. - Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai on July 26, highlighting the importance of AI governance [1]. Group 2: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing rapid adjustments, with increased redemption pressure on bond funds and a general high duration in the market, leading to a short-term correction [3]. - The A-share market is showing improved sentiment and increased trading activity, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4].

Regulatory Policies and Industry News Interpretation - The acceleration of bank wealth management's layout in A-shares and Hong Kong IPOs is driven by regulatory policies that provide institutional support for medium to long-term capital entering the market [2][8] - The low interest rate environment is pushing wealth management institutions to explore new paths for returns, with a focus on "fixed income plus" strategies to expand revenue sources [8][9] - The Hong Kong IPO market has significant strategic value, supported by continuous optimization of the listing mechanism [9][10] Market Trends and Performance - As of June, the total outstanding scale of wealth management products slightly decreased by 1.39% month-on-month to 30.85 trillion yuan, while year-on-year growth was 9.97% [3] - Cash management products saw a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.45%, up by 0.50 basis points, while pure fixed income products had an annualized yield of 2.66%, down by 0.01 percentage points [3] - The market's wealth management product net value decline rate fell to 1.73% in June, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [3] New Product Issuance - The scale of newly issued wealth management products rebounded in June, aligning with seasonal trends, with a continued dominance of "fixed income plus" products, closed-end products, and 1-3 year products [3][4] - Most new wealth management products in June continued to lower their performance benchmarks, reflecting a consensus among wealth management companies on the long-term low interest rate environment [3][4] Product Performance - The closed-end product compliance rate reached 85.46% in June, an increase of 1.04 percentage points from May, while the compliance rate for open-end products was 68.72%, down by 0.12 percentage points [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance of fixed-income public funds in Q2 2025, highlighting a recovery in net asset values for pure bond funds after a turbulent period in April and May, with REITs and convertible bond funds leading the performance [8][12]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, passive index bond funds experienced significant inflows, indicating a strong growth trend in fund sizes [12]. - The overall leverage of funds showed an upward trend by the end of June 2025 compared to March 2025, suggesting increased risk-taking among fund managers [15]. Group 2 - The article notes that the duration of pure bond funds has generally increased, indicating a shift towards longer-term investments [20]. - The allocation of convertible bonds remained stable compared to the previous quarter, while stock allocations across various fund types showed a declining trend [26]. - The report identifies the top sectors for active increases in holdings, including non-bank financials, banks, telecommunications, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors like food and beverage, automotive, coal, and household appliances saw reductions [38]. Group 3 - The top ten holdings by market value in Q2 2025 included companies such as Changqing Mining, Tencent Holdings, and Longjiang Power, with significant investments in sectors like non-ferrous metals and public utilities [42]. - The report highlights the changes in holdings, with notable increases in positions for stocks like Xinyi Semiconductor and Zhongji Xuchuang, while reductions were observed in stocks like Wuliangye and Midea Group [51][52]. - The article emphasizes the cautious outlook of fund managers for the bond market, with expectations of continued volatility and a focus on maintaining liquidity and flexibility in asset allocation strategies [58][62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the performance and strategies of active equity funds in Q2 2025, highlighting the market's recovery and the shifting focus of fund managers towards various sectors such as consumption, pharmaceuticals, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and high-end manufacturing [10][23][41]. Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the A-share market experienced a fluctuating upward trend, with significant sector rotation and style switching. The National Index 2000 and ChiNext 50 recorded positive returns of 4.41% and 3.19%, respectively, while the median return of active equity funds was 1.90%, outperforming major indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500 [10][12][14]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of active equity funds was 3.29 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 3.33 trillion yuan in the previous quarter. The net outflow of funds in Q1 2025 was 113.407 billion yuan, with 74.34% of funds experiencing a decline of more than 1% [15][19]. - The average stock position of active equity funds was 87.23%, with 39.57% of funds adjusting their positions by 0 to 5% [19][21]. Group 3 - The top five industries with increased allocations were telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, banking, and defense industry, while the top five industries with reduced allocations included food and beverage, automotive, retail, electric equipment and new energy, and machinery [23][24]. - The report indicates a significant shift in fund managers' focus towards sectors with growth potential, particularly in AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing, while also noting the challenges faced by traditional sectors [41][62]. Group 4 - Fund managers expressed optimism about the resilience of the Chinese economy and the potential for recovery, with a focus on undervalued assets in traditional sectors and growth opportunities in emerging industries [41][49][62]. - The report highlights the increasing interest in innovative pharmaceuticals, with a notable rise in the number of clinical trials and international collaborations, reflecting a trend towards globalization in the pharmaceutical industry [62][63].