分析师：卫以诺 登记编号：S0890518120001 周报要点 市场规模： 截至2026年3月27日，全市场ETF总规模约5.04万亿元，上周规模收缩主要由市场下跌驱动，但申 赎贡献为正，显示资金在逆势净申购而非恐慌离场。结构上，宽基与主题ETF同步缩量是主要拖累，策略ETF 小幅正贡献；债券型ETF份额微增但规模受益于行情上行，权益端呈"份额增但规模降"的格局表明申购资金在 对冲下跌但尚未托住规模。头部机构ETF普遍承压，嘉实和南方固收端逆势增长是上周最显著的边际变化。 业绩分化： 上周（2026.03.23-03.27，下同）境内权益端普遍小幅回撤但跌幅较前周明显收窄，沪深300降至 77.51%估值分位，高估值压力有所缓解。结构性亮点集中于周期资源与防御方向——化工ETF周涨3.65%、电 力ETF周涨2.88%且年内累计涨幅达17.00%，估值分位仅42.09%，兼具强势与合理估值；而证券ETF跌幅最深 （-3.88%）但PB分位仅19.60%，恒生科技估值分位降至15.03%，低估值板块的配置吸引力正在积累。结合资 金流向看，细分化工和有色金属上周大幅净流出，追涨资金正在退潮，强势行业的高估值已开 ...

权益市场回顾与展望： 短期来看，伊朗方面拒绝特朗普政府提出的停战协议，双方在4月6日之前或会反复发动 袭击以获取更多谈判筹码，这对金融市场而言无疑会带来剧烈波动的风险。然而，亚洲国家的船只陆续获得通 过霍尔木兹海峡的许可，国际油价也从高位回落，对亚洲经济的直接冲击或逐步减弱。中东局势的警报并未消 除，市场仍处于反复震荡期。 配置上建议关注三条主线：一是受益于国内政策驱动与产业周期向上的方向，如电网设备、锂电材料等具备业 绩支撑的细分领域；二是具备长期成长逻辑且估值处于相对低位的科技赛道，包括算力基础设施、半导体设备 及材料等；三是煤炭、化工、金融等低估值价值类板块。短期可适当控制仓位，把握结构性机会，等待外部风 险进一步明朗。 固收市场回顾与展望： 上周（2026.03.23-2026.03.27）债市震荡修复，1年期国债收益率下行0.50BP至1.25%， 10年期国债收益率下行1.27BP至1.82%，30年期国债收益率下行3.84BP至2.35%。债市整体仍在窄幅震荡中运 行，长端收益率有所修复，而短端收益率持续多周下行。当前在中东战局或烈度加剧、油价居高不下的大环境 下，权益市场持续低迷，而债市的避险 ...

分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 列发射了弹道导弹，行动将持续到侵略停止。 02 周度行情回顾 1、特朗普在3月26日表示，他计划于5月中旬访华。中国外交部回应称，双方就此保持 着沟通。 2、26日晚，伊朗革命卫队海军司令阿里礼萨·坦格西里在空袭中被证实身亡。作为回 应，伊朗发动了"真实承诺-4"的第82轮行动，使用导弹和无人机打击了美军在海湾国家 的军事基地。 3、27日，美国总统特朗普宣称与伊朗进行了"富有成效"的对话，并单方面宣布推迟对伊 朗能源设施的空袭10天，声称收到了伊朗的"大礼"（允许10艘油轮通过霍尔木兹海 峡）。 4、26日，美国通过中间人向伊朗提出了包含15点内容的停火方案，要求伊朗弃核、结 束代理人战争等。伊朗则回应了5项必须条件，核心是要求结束侵略、赔偿损失，并坚持 对霍尔木兹海峡的主权。 5、美国国防部正在制定针对伊朗的所谓"最后一击"军事选项，相关方案可能包括动用地 面部队及大规模空袭行动。美军正在向中东地区增派地面作战兵力，包含数千兵力的海 军陆战队第11远征队已在途中 军陆战队第1 ...

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 监管和行业动态： 1、据券商中国报道，此前部分区域性中小银行被要求于2026年末清零存量 存续理财业务，经与属地监管部门沟通后，相关业务可实行过渡期安排。据普益标准数据显 示，今年以来银行机构作为发行主体已累计发行理财产品1,685只（子份额合并计算），其中到 期日跨越至2027年的产品达99只，这一市场动态或从侧面印证了监管执行口径的柔性调整。 同业创新动态： 1、交银理财于3月16日成功认购首钢集团在北交所公开发行的短期公司债。本 次投资是交银理财落地的首笔北交所债券业务，既是其完善跨市场资产配置布局的重要举措， 也是服务实体经济、践行金融"五篇大文章"发展要求的具体实践。 收益率表现： 上周（2026.3.16-2026.3.22，下同）现金管理类产品近7日年化收益率录得 1.21%，环比下降4BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.16%，环比上升1BP。 上周，各期 限纯固收产品收益率多数上升，各期限固收+产品收益率普遍下降。 受地缘政治冲突不确定性 加剧、滞胀预期升温、国内1 ...

分析师：卫以诺 登记编号：S0890518120001 周报要点 市场规模： 截至2026年3月20日，全市场ETF总规模达5.10万亿元，较年初缩水0.92万亿元，上市只数增至 1,458只，较年初新增55只。股票型ETF规模2.95万亿元，商品型ETF较年初大增820.92亿元至3,325.55亿元， 避险需求仍有支撑；跨境ETF新增10只，多元化配置需求持续提升。TOP20基金公司本期ETF缩量普遍超百 亿，权益端普遍承压，头部机构分化加大。 业绩分化： 上周（2026.03.16-03.20，下同）境内权益端大幅回撤，中证500、中证1000跌幅分别达6.00%和 5.29%，估值分位仍处96.87%和97.53%的历史高位；防御板块未能独善其身，电力ETF下跌2.97%。军工龙头 ETF和红利ETF近5年PE分位数分别为96.54和99.26，科创50ETF达95.63，处于历史高位；恒生科技ETF （23.80）、医药ETF（32.21）估值仍处低位，中长期配置吸引力犹存。 资金流向： 上周资金流向出现边际转变，宽基ETF近5日净流入126.08亿元，为近期首次转正，短期资金风险偏 好边际回升；但 ...

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The core variable affecting the market remains the Middle East, with both short-term trading logic and long-term "stagflation risk" expectations dependent on whether the geopolitical conflict can be resolved quickly [1][5] - Until uncertainties in the geopolitical situation decrease or commodity price volatility declines, the market will continue to be impacted by event narratives and liquidity shocks, leading to a focus on long-term expectations [5][6] - A-shares are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with structural opportunities being more prominent than overall opportunities; recommended sectors include energy-related stocks (oil, green energy, coal, coal chemical), low valuation and low volatility stocks (state-owned banks, utilities), and sectors that can maintain high prosperity independent of geopolitical and oil price influences (energy storage, domestic AIDC) [1][5][6] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market showed significant differentiation between short and long ends, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 2.00 basis points to 1.26%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields increased by 1.56 basis points to 1.83% and 2.16 basis points to 2.39%, respectively [2][7] - The current bond market is in a volatile state, with extreme risk aversion driving down short-end yields, while long-end yields are rising due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and heightened inflation expectations [7][8] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on short-end credit products showing strong allocation value; however, long-end yields have limited downward momentum, and liquidity may face certain shocks as the quarter-end approaches [2][7] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with average daily trading volume at 22,091 billion, a decrease from the previous week; the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant drop in global risk assets [4][5] - Funds are shifting from macro-sensitive cyclical sectors to technology manufacturing sectors with independent growth logic, driven by multiple industry benefits such as the overseas GTC conference and price increases in cloud computing and storage products [4][5] - Resource cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals are under pressure, primarily due to external macroeconomic impacts, including rising oil prices and concerns over the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [4][5]

分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 1、当地时间3月18日晚，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊发表声明，对伊朗最高国 家安全委员会秘书拉里贾尼及其子遇害表示哀悼。 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 2、3月19日，美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.5%至3.75%不变，连续第二 次按兵不动。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美国通胀前景不确定性上升， 中东局势和关税扰动等因素正在打断通胀回落的节奏。他强调，若通胀无进展，将不 会降息。 3、3月20日，1年期和5年期以上LPR均未调整，连续第十个月按兵不动。 4、当地时间3月21日，特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，随着他们考虑逐步 降级在中东针对伊朗政权所开展的各项重大军事行动，他们已非常接近实现既定目 标。 (3.16-3.22) 02 周度行情回顾 债市震荡 债市震荡。短期内受中东局势复杂变化影响，市场观望情绪仍然较高，缺乏突破契机， 10年期国债收益率在1.80%上方波动。 A股震荡回落 A股震荡走弱。上证综指下跌3.38%，Wind全A下跌4.13%。由于中东局势反复，市场对 ...

Investment Insights - The short-term impact of geopolitical conflicts on equity markets is expected to gradually diminish, with the market likely having priced in the risks of high oil prices over the coming months [1][6] - A-shares are anticipated to oscillate between the "HALO chain" of price increases and the "TACO chain" of growth due to geopolitical uncertainties, delayed Fed rate cut expectations, and domestic policy transmission lags [1][6] - Key areas to focus on include: (1) Energy alternatives and price increase logic, benefiting sectors like coal chemical and heat pump due to rising prices of crude oil, natural gas, and chemical raw materials [1][6][7]; (2) Structural opportunities in growth sectors, with specific attention to hardware upgrades in areas like CPO, PCB, and liquid cooling, especially with the upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference [1][7] Equity Market Review - During the week of March 9-13, 2026, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 experienced varied performance, with the Shanghai Composite down by 0.70% and the ChiNext Index up by 2.51% [5] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 24,969 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous week [5] - The "养龙虾" concept initially drove a surge in related sectors like computing power leasing and AI applications, but quickly cooled due to regulatory risks [5] Fixed Income Market Review - The bond market saw adjustments during the week of March 9-13, 2026, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.9 basis points to 1.28%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields increased by 3.33 basis points to 1.81% and 8.53 basis points to 2.37%, respectively [2][8] - The bond market is significantly influenced by overseas geopolitical conflicts, with concerns about input inflation and delayed rate cuts leading to a rise in yields across various maturities [2][8] - If the conflict in the Middle East continues, there may be upward pressure on the yield center, particularly for long-term bonds [2][8] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the disclosure guidelines for public funds to enhance transparency and protect investors' rights, effective from May 1, 2026 [10][11] - Key revisions include the integration of similar disclosure items across annual, semi-annual, and quarterly reports, and the introduction of new disclosure requirements such as trading conditions and investor statistics [11]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The regulatory authorities have taken action to address the "yield ranking" phenomenon in the wealth management sector, penalizing related institutions to correct distorted behaviors driven by short-term performance competition, shifting focus towards long-term investment research and service capability development [3][5] - Major wealth management companies, including Xingyin, Puyin, and Zhaoyin, are actively promoting a transition from traditional fixed-value benchmarks to more market-linked and explainable benchmarks, such as market interest rates or index-linked benchmarks, in response to new regulations and the low interest rate environment [3][6] Market Trends and Performance - As of February, the total outstanding scale of wealth management products reached 31.65 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.34% and a year-on-year increase of 5.35%. The market is characterized by a seasonal pattern of "quarter-end contraction and quarter-beginning recovery" due to regulatory requirements [4][9] - The average annualized yield for cash management products recorded 1.28%, a decrease of 0.06 basis points month-on-month, while pure fixed-income products saw an annualized yield of 2.30%, down by 0.38 percentage points [4][11] New Product Launches and Innovations - In February, new product issuance by wealth management companies decreased, but the product spectrum remains dominated by fixed-income plus products, closed-end products, and 1-3 year term products. The performance benchmarks for newly issued products generally continued to decline [4][8] - Ningyin Wealth Management successfully participated in the IPO of "Electric Science Blue Sky," marking a significant move into the commercial aerospace sector, while Suyin Wealth Management launched the "Arbitrage+" series of products, upgrading arbitrage as a core strategy to capture pricing discrepancies in the market [3][7] Product Characteristics and Strategies - The closed-end product compliance rate reached 87.41%, while the open-end product compliance rate was 69.49%, indicating a slight improvement in product performance standards [5][8] - Wealth management companies are increasingly focusing on alternative asset allocations, with Zhongyou Wealth Management successfully investing in a real estate ABS project backed by power battery charging rights, aiming for stable cash flow from equity assets [3][7]

Market Overview - As of March 6, 2026, the total market size of ETFs reached 5.30 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.72 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, with the number of listed ETFs increasing to 1,445, adding 45 new listings [2][22] - The stock-type ETFs accounted for 3.09 trillion yuan, while bond-type ETFs totaled 737.49 billion yuan, and commodity-type ETFs increased by 106.15 billion yuan to 356.61 billion yuan, driven by strong demand for gold as a safe haven [2][22] Performance Disparity - Last week, leading military industry ETFs and dividend ETFs had PE percentiles close to 100, while the Hang Seng Technology ETF (15.57), pharmaceutical ETF (32.73), and electric power ETF (44.71) remained at historical low valuations, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][12][18] - The performance of various sectors showed significant divergence, with cyclical manufacturing ETFs like oil rising by 8.20%, while broader indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 500 experienced declines of 1.23% and 3.62%, respectively [12][16] Fund Flows - Overall, funds showed a defensive tendency last week, with broad-based ETFs experiencing net outflows, while commodity (gold) and fixed-income ETFs attracted capital, with SGE gold seeing a net inflow of 877.57 billion yuan year-to-date [3][20] - The main inflow channels were thematic ETFs (+2,016 billion yuan) and cyclical manufacturing ETFs (+1,443 billion yuan), indicating a clear trend of capital migrating from broad-based ETFs to thematic and cyclical sectors [3][33] Issuance Dynamics - The issuance of ETFs accelerated last week, with 77 ETFs in the process of being issued (up 48% week-on-week), and 12 new funds established (up 140%) [4][52] - New products primarily focused on energy sectors, with electric grid equipment, electric power, and photovoltaic ETFs dominating the new listings, reflecting current market trends [4][52] Trading Activity - The total trading volume of ETFs was approximately 2.9 trillion yuan last week, with bond-type ETFs leading the increase, followed by stock-type ETFs [39] - The short-term bond ETF from Hai Fu Tong had a weekly trading volume of 2,991.97 billion yuan, indicating high liquidity in the bond market [41] Valuation Insights - The valuation structure showed that core broad-based ETFs remained relatively stable, while growth and small-cap valuations were more volatile, reflecting a higher sensitivity to market fluctuations [12][18] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF and other low-valuation sectors like pharmaceuticals are attracting attention for potential long-term investments due to their historical low PE percentiles [18][20]