Core Viewpoints - The banking wealth management market shows steady growth, with the total scale reaching 32.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.76% [3][7] - The integration of technology and finance is enhancing investor education and customer service capabilities in the wealth management industry, marking a shift from product sales to service-driven models [11] - The introduction of new data exchange protocols in the banking sector is expected to improve efficiency and transparency in the wealth management market [12] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The China Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center released the "Quarterly Report on the Banking Wealth Management Market (Q3 2025)", indicating a robust growth in the wealth management market [3][7] - The number of wealth management products in the market reached 30,600, with a total scale of 29.28 trillion yuan, accounting for 91.13% of the market [7] - The increase in cash and bank deposits to 27.5% reflects a cautious investment approach among wealth management companies [9][10] Performance of Financial Products - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.27%, a decrease of 4 basis points, while money market funds saw a slight increase [14] - Fixed income products continue to dominate the market, with a total scale of 31.21 trillion yuan, representing 97.14% of all wealth management products [8] - The overall yield of fixed income products is under pressure due to market volatility and regulatory changes [17] Innovations in the Industry - Agricultural Bank and its wealth management arm successfully implemented a new data exchange protocol, enhancing the standardization and efficiency of the wealth management sector [12] - ICBC Wealth Management participated as a cornerstone investor in the IPO of Cambridge Technology, indicating a strategic focus on the AI computing industry [13] Tracking of Net Value Breaks - The net value break rate for wealth management products was 1.12%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points, with credit spreads tightening [22] - The current credit spread is at a historical low since September 2024, indicating limited value for wealth management products [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that after the release of favorable policies, the probability of style switching in the market has increased, with a focus on technology and manufacturing sectors as the main drivers of domestic development [2][5] - The equity market is expected to transition to a stable operation as new catalysts diminish following the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan," suggesting a potential reduction in growth momentum [2][5] - It is recommended to moderately reduce positions in technology growth sectors and consider switching to broader indices or low-volatility dividend stocks for a more stable investment approach [2][5] Group 2 - In the stock market, the balance between large-cap and small-cap stocks has been maintained, while growth styles have shown a tendency towards growth [7] - The volatility of both large-cap and growth styles has increased, indicating a more dynamic market environment [7][8] - The concentration of trading has slightly decreased, with the proportion of trading volume from the top 100 stocks showing a minor decline [7] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of precious metals and agricultural products has decreased, while other sectors have shown an increase in trend strength [20] - The liquidity of precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products has declined, indicating potential challenges in these markets [20] Group 4 - In the options market, the implied volatility has decreased, reflecting a calming of market expectations regarding tariff increases, although uncertainty remains as both put and call option positions have increased [23] Group 5 - The convertible bond market has shown slight recovery, with stable pure bond premium rates and a steady increase in the premium rates for bonds convertible at 100 yuan [25]

F FINE ETF网格策略 ETF网格策略重点关注标的 (1) 计算机ETF (159586.SZ) 10月23日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第 四次全体会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民 经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称 "'十五五'规划"），明确提出包含"科技自立 自强水平大幅提高"在内的"十五五"时期经济社 会发展主要目标，并提出"全面增强自主创新能 力，抢占科技发展制高点，不断催生新质生产力" "深入推进数字中国建设"。该ETF跟踪中证全指 计算机指数，主要集中于AI应用、云服务、IT软硬 件等赛道,在战略性政策红利、Al技术浪潮与信创 产业国产化替代的三轮驱动下,具备长期成长潜 注:回测区间为近 120 交易日,数据或至 2025/10/27;由于数据获取限制,该回测基于每日前复权收 行;该回测假设交易费用为0;回测结果可能与真实交易情况不同;回测结果基于历史数据,不代表未来表 (2) 沙特ETF（159329.5Z） 沙特于2016年宣布"2030愿景"计划，旨在 推动其从"石油依赖"向"多元经济"的深度经济 转型。"2030愿景"共提出96项战略目标，其中包 含：将非石油出口的 ...

分析师：李亭函 登记编号：S0890519080001 分析师：黄浩 登记编号：S0890524110001 投资要点 前期对于市场的扰动因素在本周有所缓解，市场修复前期跌幅，同时在二十届四中全会公报的推动下，市场对于产业、科技等领域信心提 升，上证指数来到3950点位上方。常青低波策略指数和股基增强策略指数分别录得2.256%和2.441%的收益。 量化策略配置观点： 股基增强策略 > 海外权益策略> 常青低波策略 A股方面，市场在临近中美谈判关键节点，不确定性有所提升，叠加上证指数来到4000点位附近，市场分歧加大，近期呈现出波动放大的 特征。综合考虑中长期市场环境以及政策导向，市场有望保持向上的趋势，即使短期有所阻力，回调空间也较为有限，市场高位震荡整固 后有望重新开启上行趋势。当前处在关键阻力点位以及利好空窗期等多重因素交叠的时间区间，市场或在当前点位区间震荡，策略上可采 取逢低逐步吸纳筹码，布局整固后有望开启的上升空间。在A股权益基金策略内部，更具弹性的股基增强组合依旧在当前时点有相对更大 空间，在本轮上行行情中，股基增强策略表现持续优于常青低波策略。常青低波策略可作为打底配置，优化组合波动特征，同 ...

投资要点 市场回顾： 上周（2025.10.20-2025.10.24）债市窄幅震荡，1年期国债收益率上行2.82BP至1.47%，10年期 国债收益率上行2.40BP至1.85%，30年期国债收益率上行1.24BP至2.21%。具体来看，中美贸易摩擦缓和等 提振股市情绪，股债跷跷板效应下，债市承压，整体呈现震荡格局。 泛固收基金指数表现跟踪： 货币增强指数：上周收涨0.03%，成立以来累计录得4.22%的收益。 分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 短期债基优选：上周收涨0.03%，成立以来累计录得4.35%的收益。 中长期债基优选：上周收涨0.08%，成立以来累计录得6.44%的收益。 低波固收+基金优选：上周收涨0.23%，成立以来累计录得4.18%的收益。 中波固收+基金优选：上周收涨0.73%，成立以来累计录得5.69%的收益。 高波固收+基金优选：上周收涨0.75%，成立以来累计录得7.56%的收益。 可转债基金优选：上周收涨1.67%，成立以来累计录得21.79%的收益。 QDII债基优选：上周收跌0.03%，成立以来累计 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market achieved a breakthrough amidst fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3950 points during the week of October 20-24, 2025, reflecting a 2.88% increase [3][11] - The technology growth sector made a strong comeback in the latter half of the week, indicating market expectations for policies promoting technological self-reliance and new productive forces [3][11] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.7928 trillion yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous week, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties [11] US-China Negotiations - The upcoming US-China negotiations from October 24-27 in Malaysia are viewed as a critical signal for easing trade tensions, potentially improving risk appetite in the capital markets if a summit between the leaders occurs [4][11] Style Rotation - The market is entering a phase of style equilibrium, suggesting that discussions around style rotation have largely concluded, with various sectors seeking their own changes and returning to performance-driven market characteristics [4][12] Active Equity Fund Index Performance - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 3.72% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 39.11% since inception [5][15] - The High-end Manufacturing Fund Selection Index increased by 8.47% last week, but has recorded a cumulative excess return of -2.53% since inception [6][15] - The Growth Stock Fund Selection Index saw a rise of 5.14% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 38.79% since inception [7][15] Sector-Specific Fund Performance - The Technology Stock Fund Selection Index increased by 5.79% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 51.08% since inception [7][15] - The Consumer Stock Fund Selection Index rose by 0.59% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 7.88% since inception [7][15] - The Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index decreased by 1.12% last week, but has a cumulative excess return of 20.21% since inception [7][15]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the potential for a market style shift in the fourth quarter, suggesting a reduction in positions within the technology growth sector and a shift towards broader indices and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][6] - The macro strategy team indicates that external short-term disturbances are expected to be less significant than in April, with positive signals anticipated from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][6] - The report notes an increase in market volatility and a tendency for profit-taking and portfolio adjustments following the release of favorable signals in October [2][6] Group 2 - In the equity market, the style has shifted towards large-cap stocks, with a preference for value over growth, while the volatility of large-cap stocks has increased [8][9] - The report highlights a decrease in the proportion of stocks rising within the market, alongside a decline in the concentration of trading among the top 100 stocks [8][9] - Market activity has shown increased volatility, with a mixed performance in turnover rates across different sectors [8][9] Group 3 - In the commodity market, trends for precious metals, energy, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products have strengthened, while the black metal sector has weakened [14][15] - The report indicates an increase in liquidity for precious metals, contrasting with a decline in liquidity for other sectors [14][15] Group 4 - The options market experienced heightened implied volatility due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a temporary spike in fear among investors [19] - The report notes that the indicators for the small-cap/growth style have not shown signs of improvement, despite previous strength [19] Group 5 - The convertible bond market adjusted in line with the stock market, maintaining stable conversion premiums, which suggests a good defensive characteristic compared to the stock market [22] - The report mentions a decline in pure bond premiums and a significant drop in market transaction volumes post-holiday [22]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current challenges and strategies in the wealth management industry, emphasizing the need for multi-asset allocation and technological empowerment to adapt to a low-interest-rate environment [6][7][17]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The Global Wealth Management Forum 2025 held in Shanghai highlighted the consensus among wealth management executives on the importance of multi-asset strategies, expanding overseas investments, and enhancing research capabilities through technology [6]. - Challenges faced by the banking wealth management sector include low interest rates leading to asset shortages, the need for differentiated services, and the demand for improved performance stability in the net value era [6][7]. - The performance benchmark for newly issued fixed-income wealth management products has dropped from over 4% at the end of 2021 to around 2.4% as of September 2023, indicating increased pressure on yield generation [6]. Innovations in the Industry - 招银理财 launched a self-selected account date wealth management product, allowing investors to set their expected fund arrival dates independently, enhancing cash flow management [9]. - 徽银理财 introduced a product focused on inclusive finance, targeting small and micro enterprises, with reduced management fees and no subscription or redemption fees [10]. Yield Performance - For the week of October 13-19, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.31%, down 4 basis points, while money market funds yielded 1.16%, down 2 basis points [12][16]. - Long-term fixed-income products outperformed short-term ones, with the market influenced by factors such as US-China tariff policies and inflation data [16][17]. Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 1.69%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points from the previous week, with credit spreads narrowing by 2.46 basis points [23][25]. - The relationship between net value ratios and credit spreads indicates potential redemption pressures when net value ratios exceed 5% and credit spreads widen significantly [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETFs that are positioned to benefit from specific economic trends and government policies, highlighting their potential for investment returns. Group 1: Saudi ETF (159329.SZ) - Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" aims to diversify its economy away from oil dependency, targeting a non-oil GDP export share increase from 16% to at least 50% [3] - The ETF's holdings reflect this diversification, with over 40% in the financial sector and more than 20% in consumer and technology sectors, while traditional fossil fuels account for only about 10% [3] - A proposed amendment by the Saudi Capital Market Authority could allow foreign ownership in listed companies to exceed 50%, potentially attracting more foreign investment [4] Group 2: Bank ETF (512800.SH) - A policy initiative encourages large state-owned insurance companies to increase their investments in A-shares, which may lead to a sustained inflow of long-term capital [6] - The ETF tracks the CSI 800 Bank Index, which had a dividend yield of 4.40% as of September 30, 2025, significantly higher than the market average and the yield on ten-year government bonds [7] Group 3: Military Industry ETF (515660.SH) - China's defense budget for 2025 is set at 1.81 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase, but still below 1.3% of GDP, compared to 3.5% for the U.S. and 6.3% for Russia [10] - The ETF tracks the CSI Defense Index, focusing on core areas such as aviation equipment, missiles, and new materials, which are expected to benefit from improvements in the defense sector's fundamentals [10]

Market Overview - In September 2025, the equity market continued its upward trend, but the growth rate slowed compared to August, with a notable structural market characterized by strong performance in technology growth sectors [5][11] - The bond market faced pressure due to the stronger equity market, leading to a volatile environment [6][11] Equity Market Insights - The leading sectors in September included electric equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, with respective gains of 18.64%, 12.64%, and 10.28%. Conversely, sectors like comprehensive finance, banking, and national defense saw declines of -8.04%, -6.64%, and -6.62% [5][10] - The market experienced significant fluctuations around the military parade, followed by a rebound in AI-related stocks due to better-than-expected earnings from overseas AI leaders [5][10] Fund Performance - All major equity fund indices recorded gains, with the Wind Active Equity Fund Index, Wind Mixed Equity Fund Index, and Wind Ordinary Stock Fund Index rising by 6.67%, 5.52%, and 5.43% respectively [5][10] - The fund performance review indicated a general uptrend in fund style indices, with growth and small-cap styles continuing to dominate [7] Bond Market Insights - The bond market continued to experience fluctuations, with the equity market's strength exerting pressure on bond yields [6][11] - Key events included a meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, which raised expectations for the resumption of bond buying, followed by concerns over fund redemption due to new regulations [6][11] Fund Strategy Adjustments - The active equity fund selection strategy focuses on sectors with high short-term prosperity, emphasizing the need for sustained industry momentum amid prolonged market differentiation [11] - Adjustments to the pure bond fund selection strategy were made to enhance returns by incorporating credit bonds and strategies adept at wave trading [17][18] Thematic Fund Performance - Thematic funds showed varied performance, with sectors benefiting from overseas demand for energy storage and breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology leading the gains [8][10] - Financial and real estate thematic funds lagged, reflecting a shift in market sentiment as risk appetite increased [8][10] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with potential for moderate recovery amid a cooling stock market and macroeconomic data [18] - The focus on domestic demand remains crucial, with expectations for sectors like aviation and liquor to gain traction as consumer infrastructure initiatives are implemented [13][14]