P F N TO ETF网格策略 ETF网格策略重点关注标的 (1) 证券保险ETF易方达 2026年1月A股共20个交易日，其中沪深两市成 交额突破3万亿的天数为8日，体现出"春季躁动" 行情的火热,也对券商经纪、两融等业务收入直接 构成利好。据财联社采访显示，多家保险公司"开 门红"销售同样火热，其中尤以分红险为最。券商 及保险"开门红"均对行业构成短期催化。2月1 日,《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走 好中国特色金融发展之路,建设金融强国》，强调 "金融强国"战略的建设路径。其与资本市场改革 持续推进,为证券与保险行业营造了有利的政策环 境。全面注册制改革、公募基金三阶段改革方案、 中长期资金入市、交易机制优化、"保险+养老" 第三支柱养老保险发展等措施,有望持续引导券商 与保险行业中长期高质量发展,并在保障金融稳健 运行、推动实体经济高质量发展方面发挥其重要作 用。 图3:证券保险 ETF 易方达(512070.SH)网格策略回测收益曲线 证券保险ETF易方达(512070.SH) 5809: 58094 1905Z 注:回测区间为近 120 交易日,数据截至 2026/2/6;由于数据获取限 ...

分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 研究助理：张琦炜 投资要点 权益市场回顾与展望： 上周（2026.02.02-2026.02.06）上证指数下跌1.27%，沪深300下跌1.33%，创业板指下 跌3.28%。在全球资源期货品种出现巨幅波动和美股科技巨头公司业绩披露期的双重扰动下，A股市场向下的波 动率开始加大。 当前国内外科技板块对利多相对钝化而利空会愈发敏感，随着春节后两会闭幕，利多或有一定程度的兑现，科 技风格的压力可能日益严峻。随着反内卷政策的深度持续推进，需求端在财政发力和经济复苏的基调下趋稳， 供需矛盾的扭转夯实行业龙头公司的业绩拐点，重点关注盈利能力修复和ROE回升的中游产业。 固收市场回顾与展望： 上周（2026.02.02-2026.02.06）债市收益率曲线走平，1年期国债收益率上行1.80BP至 1.32%，10年期国债收益率下行0.1BP至1.81%，30年期国债收益率下行3.8BP至2.25%。债市长端收益率持续下 行，期限利差缩窄。债市近期震荡偏强，节前股市波动增大、部分避险资金或流入债市；央行今年投放流动 ...

分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 1、2月4日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，中方言必信， 行必果，说到做到。只要双方秉持平等、尊重、互惠的态度相向而行，就可以找到解决 彼此关切的办法。习近平强调，台湾问题是中美关系中最重要的问题。台湾是中国的领 土，中方必须捍卫国家主权和领土完整，永远不可能让台湾分裂出去。美方务必慎重处 理对台军售问题。 2、欧洲央行一如市场预期维持利率不变。欧洲央行总裁拉加德在记者会上表示，"当前 形势总体平衡"，同时提及该前景面临的上行与下行风险，重申货币政策仍处于"良好位 置"。 3、美国劳工部周四报告称，上周首次申请失业救济人数大幅攀升。在席卷南部和东部大 片地区的暴风雪之后，截至1月31日当周，经季节性调整的首次申请失业救济人数总计 为23.1万人。 4、亚马逊预测今年资本支出将激增逾50%，加入人工智能(AI)基础设施投资狂潮，其股 价在盘后大跌9%。这再次表明，科技巨头短期内不会放缓AI巨额投资。由于市场对AI热 潮的巨额成本担忧加剧，亚马逊股价在常规交易时 ...

Macro Overview - The U.S. labor market remains weak, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain interest rates in the short term and a low probability of balance sheet reduction [3] - December's non-farm payrolls showed weakness, and previous data was revised down, indicating a deteriorating labor market despite a "virtually low" unemployment rate [3] - Inflation in December was moderate, reflecting previous market concerns about tariff transmission effects, which may be "one-off"; future inflation will depend more on rental prices, service industries, and energy prices [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until at least June 2026, influenced by fiscal stimulus measures supporting the economy and inflation [3] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair suggests a preference for policy independence through balance sheet reduction, but this view lacks consensus and empirical support within the Fed [3] Domestic Macro - Economic downward pressure is increasing, with Q4 GDP growth slowing to 4.5%, but the annual growth target of 5% is expected to be met [3] - Domestic consumption, investment, and real estate continue to decline, with investment growth slowing due to debt reduction and subsidy withdrawal, leading to increased pressure on consumption [3] - External demand and production remain strong, providing important support for economic growth [3] - Price indices are stabilizing, showing the effects of anti-inflation measures, but internal demand remains insufficient, with a divergence in pressures between upstream high-tech manufacturing and lower-tier sectors [3] - Policies are still focused on proactive measures, with a relatively mild overall intensity; 2026 policies are expected to be more pragmatic, with many local targets set lower than last year [3] A-share Strategy - The market is returning to rationality, with a short-term shift towards stability; investment and consumption are declining, while price indicators are stabilizing [3] - A-share trading volume has decreased, but overall sentiment remains high; medium to long-term policies are increasingly focused on technological innovation, with national subsidies continuing but at a reduced intensity [3] - External geopolitical risks, particularly from Trump, have increased but have a limited impact on the domestic market [3] - The spring market rally may be nearing its end, with expectations for a more rational market in February; the early spring rally has progressed quickly, and regulatory measures are cooling the market [3] - Investors are advised to consider taking profits or shifting to a more stable investment style before the Spring Festival, as the market is expected to experience increased volatility [3] Industry/Style - Investors are encouraged to take profits in high-growth technology sectors before the Spring Festival and shift to a more defensive style [3] - Focus on large-cap indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, and A500, as market volatility is expected to rise [3] - Short-term strategies should include high-dividend stocks and sectors like banking, utilities, consumption, and real estate for potential opportunities [3] - Mid-term outlook suggests support for commodity-based sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, while technology hardware sectors should be monitored for guidance from earnings reports [3] Asset Allocation Views - A-shares: Neutral [5] - Hong Kong stocks: Neutral [5] - Interest rate bonds: Neutral [5] - Credit bonds: Neutral [5] - Convertible bonds: Neutral [5] - U.S. stocks: Relatively optimistic [5] - U.S. bonds: Relatively optimistic [5] - U.S. dollar: Neutral [5] - Japanese stocks: Relatively optimistic [5] - Gold: Neutral [5] - Oil: Relatively cautious [5] - Currency/deposits: Neutral [5]

收益率表现： 上 周 （ 2026.1.26-2026.2.1 ， 下 同 ） 现 金 管 理 类 产 品 近 7 日 年 化 收 益 率 录 得 1.28%，环比上升1BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.15%，环比下降1BP。 上周各期限 纯固收、固收+产品收益普遍下降。 债市走势分化，美联储主席人选提名扰动市场预期，引发 贵金属大幅波动，避险情绪升温带动股市震荡回调，对债市形成一定支撑。但与此同时，跨月 资金面平稳，叠加地产"三道红线"政策放松，短端及超长端收益率表现偏弱。全周来看，10年 期国债活跃券收益率下行2BP至1.81%，30年期国债活跃券收益率上行1BP至2.26%。 破净率跟踪： 上周银行理财产品破净率0.61%，环比上升0.08个百分点，信用利差环比收敛 1.96BP。后续密切关注信用利差走势，若持续走扩，或将令破净率承压上行。 风险提示： 本报告部分数据基于数据供应商，可能为市场不完全统计数据，旨在反映市场趋势 而非准确数量，所载任何意见及推测仅反映于本报告发布当日的判断。理财产品业绩比较基准 及过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资建议，不代表推介。 01 要闻梳理与简评 监 ...

分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 研究助理：张琦炜 投资要点 权益市场回顾与展望： 上周（2026.01.26-2026.01.30）A股震荡分化，沪深300上涨0.1%，中证500下跌2.6%， 创业板下跌0.1%。市场核心特征是高成交额下的极端分化与快速轮动，两市单日成交额多次突破或接近3万 亿，交投高度活跃，但个股跌多涨少的局面频现。 市场资金在通胀交易与科技成长主线之间激烈博弈、资金流向变化共同塑造了震荡与分化的格局。"价格趋 势"是上半周有效的指挥棒，无论是黄金、白银、铜等大宗商品价格的暴涨暴跌，还是NAND闪存、云计算服 务、电子元器件的集体涨价，都直接主导了对应行业板块走势，凸显市场对边际变化的高度敏感和交易博弈的 短期化。随着反内卷政策的深度持续推进，各行业的投资增速相继转负，隐含未来供给收缩，而需求端在财政 发力和经济复苏的基调下趋稳，供需矛盾的扭转夯实行业龙头公司的业绩拐点，建议重点关注盈利能力修复和 ROE回升的中游产业。 固收市场回顾与展望： 上周（2026.01.26-2026.01.30）债市震荡运行，1年 ...

分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 (1.26-1.30) 02 周度行情回顾 债市修复 债市延续修复。权益市场震荡偏弱，债市情绪延续改善，周初长债收益率再度向下，多地 地方政府GDP目标与去年全国增速（5%）持平或略有下调，显示出不追求强刺 ... 报告正文共计3251字 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 1、1月27日，统计局公布数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 73982.0亿元，比上年增长0.6%。12月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长5.3%。 2、当地时间1月28日，美联储公布货币政策委员会FOMC的会议决定：将联邦基金利 率的目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。本次美联储声明删除了就业风险增加的说 辞，指出经济形势有改善、尤其在失业率上升方面已有企稳迹象，暗示联储决策者更 谨慎，并不急于继续行动。 3、当地时间1月29日，美国总统特朗普在肯尼迪中心对媒体表示，在紧张局势不断升 级之际，他已与伊朗方面进行接触，并计划继续展开对话，同时再次以军事行动相威 胁，敦促伊朗接受协议条件。 4、1月30日，特朗普总统宣 ...

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 监管和行业动态： 1、银行理财2025年报出炉：截至2025年末，银行理财市场存续规模达33.29 万亿元，较年初增长11.15%，全年增量3.34万亿元。产品结构呈现"现金管理类收缩、固收类主 导、混合类扩容"的鲜明特征。资产配置方面，重点增配公募基金、现金及银行存款，减配信用 债和同业存单。 收益率表现： 上周（2026.1.19-2026.1.25，下同）现金管理类产品近7日年化收益率录得 1.27%，环比下降1BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.16%，环比基本持平。 上周各期 限纯固收、固收+产品收益多数上升。 央行大规模超额续作MLF，且明确降准降息仍有空间， 政策端呵护姿态持续凸显；监管主动引导下权益市场出现回调，加之国债发行结果向好，市场 对年初供给压力的担忧有所缓释，多重因素共振推动债市情绪延续回暖态势。全周来看，10年 国债活跃券收益率较上周下行1BP至1.83%，30年国债活跃券收益率较上周下行6BP至2.25%。 破净率跟踪： 上周银行理财产品破净率0.55% ...

1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 == 1 ETF网格策略 ETF网格策略重点关注标的 金融科技ETF (159851.SZ) (1) "十五五"规划再提"加快建设金融强国" 旨在通过大力发展"科技金融""数字金融"等五 篇大文章,持续深化资本市场改革,提高资本市场 制度包容性与适应性。另一方面，近年以生成式 AI、区块链为代表的前沿技术正加速进入规模化应 用阶段，推动金融行业的数智化转型从"可选项" 转变为"必答题"。部分领先的金融机构及IT厂商 已将AI等技术逐步嵌入客户营销、智能客服、内部 风控等应用场景,实现金融与科技交叉融合,有望 成为金融行业降本增效与模式创新的关键力量,重 塑金融行业生态并为其开辟全新增长曲线。该ETF 跟踪中证金融科技主题指数,覆盖金融IT、互联网 金融等核心赛道,为投资者提供了一键布局"金融 +科技"交叉领域创新红利的高效工具。 金融科技ETF (159851.SZ) 025082 026012 025082 02508 02508 TF买入持有累计收益率(%) 图 1: 金融 ...

Key Points - The article discusses the recent performance of the equity market, highlighting a significant divergence in market trends due to regulatory policies and liquidity conditions. Major sectors like consumption, pharmaceuticals, and finance saw declines, while growth sectors, particularly commercial aerospace, gained attention after adjustments [3][7][9] - The earnings season is beginning, and the market may shift towards profit recovery and valuation repair. The ongoing anti-involution policies are leading to negative investment growth across various industries, indicating future supply contraction, while demand stabilizes under fiscal stimulus and economic recovery, benefiting leading companies in sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [3][9] - The bond market experienced a rise in short-term yields and a decline in long-term yields, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 3.95 basis points to 1.28%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields decreased by 1.26 and 1.65 basis points, respectively. This shift is attributed to a "cooling" stock market prompting funds to seek refuge in bonds [4][10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, maintaining consistency with previous drafts and introducing specific adjustments regarding benchmark changes and reporting requirements [12] Equity Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices fell by 0.62% and 0.34%, respectively. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 27.972 trillion yuan, indicating a reduction in market activity [7] - ETF funds experienced a net outflow, with the CSI 300 ETF seeing a reduction of 49.603 billion units. Other ETFs also faced significant outflows, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment and the effectiveness of regulatory measures aimed at attracting long-term capital [7][8] Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a narrowing of yield spreads, with the short-term funding environment remaining favorable. The People's Bank of China indicated potential for further monetary easing, which could support market sentiment [4][10] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The recent release of performance benchmark guidelines for public funds aims to standardize evaluation criteria and ensure consistency in fund management practices, reflecting a regulatory push towards greater transparency and accountability in the fund industry [12]