分析师道破阿里股价下跌之谜：云业务增长不及买方预期

Core Viewpoint - Despite a downgrade in net profit expectations by some brokerage firms, Alibaba generally received a "buy" rating from analysts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 of FY2025, Alibaba achieved revenue growth of 7% year-on-year, reaching 236.45 billion RMB, and a non-GAAP net profit increase of 22%, amounting to 29.85 billion RMB [2] - The growth was driven by the core e-commerce and cloud businesses, with all segments showing year-on-year improvement in EBITA [2] - The Chinese retail segment of Taotian Group saw an 8% revenue increase, totaling 95.58 billion RMB, surpassing the previous quarter influenced by Double 11 [4] Group 2: E-commerce Strategy - Alibaba has made significant adjustments to its e-commerce operations, including divesting from offline retail and streamlining its business lines [4] - The introduction of the "All-Station Promotion" product aims to enhance monetization and compete effectively against rivals like Pinduoduo [5] - The company is focusing on stabilizing market share and increasing GMV, which has seen a decline from 64% to 49% of the national online retail market share from FY2024 Q4 [5] Group 3: User Engagement and Membership - Alibaba is enhancing its 88VIP membership program, which has grown to over 50 million users, a 43% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is also targeting high-value users with tailored shopping benefits while introducing low-threshold monthly cards to attract cost-conscious consumers [6] Group 4: Cloud Business Performance - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth has been underwhelming, with less than 10% growth for nine consecutive quarters, attributed to increased competition and reduced enterprise demand [9] - Recent quarters have shown improvement, with revenue growth of 13% and 18%, driven by AI-related demand [10] - The CEO noted that AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating a shift in enterprise cloud adoption [10] Group 5: Market Comparison - Year-to-date, Alibaba's stock has risen approximately 46% in the US and 52% in Hong Kong, outperforming Microsoft and Amazon [11] - Despite this growth, Alibaba's current market valuation is only half that of Tencent, indicating potential for further recovery [11]