黄金还要跌多久？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have recently declined despite a general market uptrend, primarily due to improved risk appetite stemming from a temporary resolution in the US-China tariff conflict, which has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] Group 1: Short-term Factors - Gold prices are currently influenced more by market sentiment than by fundamental factors, with a significant increase in speculative trading following a 30% rise in gold prices earlier in 2025 [3][5] - The recent technical adjustment in gold prices is attributed to an overbought condition, with non-commercial net long positions reaching a historical peak of 382,000 contracts, 47% above the five-year average [1][3] - Geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are critical in determining gold price fluctuations, as they directly impact market risk sentiment [3][4] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - The potential for the US economy to enter a stagflation phase is a key factor for gold prices, as high inflation coupled with stagnant growth would make gold an attractive investment [4][5] - Historical precedents, such as the stagflation of the 1970s, illustrate how gold prices can surge dramatically during periods of economic instability, with prices rising from $35 to $850 per ounce between 1971 and 1980 [4][9] Group 3: Long-term Dynamics - The long-term value of gold is increasingly tied to the erosion of dollar credit, as the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 72.7% to 57.3% [9][11] - The demand for gold is expected to rise as central banks continue to diversify their reserves, with projections indicating a need for an additional 750 tons of gold annually over the next decade to offset the declining dollar share [11][12] - The ongoing questioning of US Treasury securities as a "safe asset" has led to a divergence between gold prices and bond yields, with gold's monetary attributes becoming more dominant [7][8] Group 4: Challenges to Dollar Credibility - The US faces significant challenges in restoring dollar credibility, including a rising national debt exceeding $36 trillion and a potential increase in interest payments that could strain fiscal resources [14] - The shift in global technological leadership from the US to China poses a threat to the dollar's dominance, particularly in key sectors like 5G and artificial intelligence [14] - The inherent contradictions in the dollar's supply and demand dynamics create a cycle that undermines its stability, complicating efforts to restore its status as a reliable currency [14]